Solar activity, the phenomenon that causes sunspots, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections, follows an 11-year cycle of highs and lows.
According to a team of astronomers from the National Solar Observatory (NSO) and the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL), the next peak of solar activity is expected to occur in July 2024, reaching a sunspot number of 115.
This is slightly lower than the average of 140, but still higher than the previous cycle, which had a peak of 82 in April 2014.
What are the effects of solar activity on Earth?
NASA via Getty Images
Solar activity can have both positive and negative effects on Earth and human civilization. On the positive side, solar flares and coronal mass ejections can create spectacular auroras, or northern and southern lights, that can be seen in high-latitude regions.
They can also enhance the ionization of the upper atmosphere, which can improve radio communications and navigation systems.
On the negative side, solar activity can also pose serious threats to our technology and infrastructure.
Solar flares and coronal mass ejections can emit intense bursts of electromagnetic radiation and charged particles, which can interfere with satellites, power grids, communication networks, and electronic devices.
They can also damage spacecraft and endanger astronauts in orbit.
In extreme cases, solar activity can cause geomagnetic storms, which are disturbances in the Earth's magnetic field that can induce electric currents in the ground and affect the operation of pipelines, railways, and telecommunication cables.
The effects of solar activity are not predictable, as they depend on many factors, such as the strength, duration, and direction of the solar eruptions, as well as the orientation and configuration of the Earth's magnetic field.
However, scientists and engineers are working on ways to monitor, forecast, and mitigate the impacts of solar activity on our society.
One of the main tools for observing and studying the sun is the Daniel K. Inouye Solar Telescope (DKIST), which is the largest and most advanced solar telescope in the world.
Located in Hawaii, the DKIST can capture high-resolution images and spectra of the sun's surface and atmosphere, revealing the details of the sunspots, magnetic fields, and plasma flows that drive solar activity.
The DKIST is expected to begin full operations in 2021, and will provide valuable data and insights for the next solar cycle.
Another important tool for forecasting and warning of solar activity is the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), which is a service of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
The SWPC monitors and analyzes the data from various satellites and ground-based observatories, and issues alerts and advisories for different levels of solar and geomagnetic activity.
The SWPC also provides guidance and recommendations for various sectors and users, such as aviation, electric power, satellite operations, and emergency management, on how to prepare for and respond to solar events.
Finally, one of the key strategies for mitigating the effects of solar activity is to improve the resilience and redundancy of our critical infrastructure and systems.
This means designing and building more robust and flexible components and networks, as well as implementing backup and recovery plans in case of disruptions or failures.
For example, power companies can install devices that can protect transformers and circuits from overloading, or isolate parts of the grid that are affected by geomagnetic currents.
Satellite operators can adjust the orbits and orientations of their spacecraft, or switch to backup modes or systems, to avoid damage or loss of functionality.
Individuals and organizations can also take precautions, such as unplugging or shielding their electronic devices, or having alternative means of communication and information, in case of solar storms.
