Caribbean Weather System Update: 'Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two' to Intensify as Tropical Storm on November 17 [NHC]

The Caribbean weather system hovering above the southwestern part of the Caribbean Sea for several days is expected to get stronger in the next few hours. According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the system, named "Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two", is forecast to intensify and become a tropical storm by Friday night, November 17. There is also a potential for it to intensify into a hurricane afterward.

The potent system can bring tropical storm conditions, including flooding and mudslides caused by heavy rain, in multiple countries across Central America and the Caribbean region, Life-threatening weather hazards like coastal erosion and strong rip currents caused by strong winds are possible along coastal areas. Although the weather disturbance is moving in a northeastward direction, the NHC is not expecting it to make a direct landfall in the mainland United States.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two

In its latest update of the Caribbean weather disturbance, the NHC at 4:00 a.m. EST (local time) on Friday stated that tropical storm conditions from Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two can impact Jamaica, Haiti, Turks and Caicos Islands, southeastern Cuba, and southeastern Bahamas. The hurricane center also issued tropical storm watches in these areas, meaning there is a likelihood that the affected countries or territories can experience inclement weather, including torrential rain and powerful winds.

Furthermore, the US hurricane monitoring center also warned that heavy rain events from Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two can impact portions of Costa Rica, Jamaica, Panama, Hispaniola, and southeast Cuba until Monday morning, November 20. The said rainfall in the mentioned areas is likely to produce flash flooding and landslides in higher terrain.

US Weather Forecast

Meteorologists state that Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two will neither make a direct impact on Florida and the entire continental US in the coming days. In fact, a separate weather system in the form of a rainstorm has recently drenched South Florida and is making its way to the Northeast US by the weekend. In addition, a recent US weather forecast shows that some parts of the country may experience adverse weather caused by two storms ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday next week.

The official 2023 Atlantic hurricane season draws near on November 30. Although AccuWeather meteorologists declared that it is already over, there are still almost two weeks for a potential tropical storm or hurricane to form over the Atlantic Ocean or the Caribbean Sea.

With Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two, which has maximum sustained winds of 35 miles per hour as of 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday, the NHC says it has a 40% chance of cyclone or hurricane formation within 48 hours or seven days. It will continue to move in the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean until 1:00 p.m. EST Sunday, November 19.

Furthermore, although the system's chance of becoming a tropical storm or hurricane is decreasing, heavy rainfall and flooding will continue to be a threat across the Caribbean region, the US agency says.