Caribbean Weather Disturbance Has 30% Chance of Hurricane Formation This week [NHC]

A Caribbean weather disturbance consisting of a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms is possible to intensify in the coming days. This is according to the United States' National Hurricane Center (NHC), which issued a forecast that the weather system hovering the southwestern Caribbean region has a low chance of hurricane formation this week. Although it is not clear if it will hit the US, the lingering storm may affect countries in the Caribbean, Central America, and their surrounding areas.

The Caribbean and Atlantic coasts of the US have witnessed a relatively quiet hurricane season in the past several days and weeks. This also comes as weather experts and meteorologists announced the end of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season. However, the hurricane season officially spans from June 1 to November 30 each year. This means that the remainder of the current season may still incur late-season tropical cyclones, including storms and hurricanes, across the region.

Caribbean Weather Disturbance

The NHC office in Miami, Florida, in its latest weather forecast on Wednesday, November 15, has been monitoring the Caribbean weather disturbance in the southwestern Caribbean Sea. As of 1:00 a.m. EST (local time), the weather disturbance has a 30% chance of cyclone or hurricane formation in the next 48 hours. Meanwhile, it also has a 50% chance of hurricane formation in the next seven days.

Environmental conditions, based on the NHC forecast, show that they are conducive for the development of this system. At least a tropical depression formation is possible by the coming weekend as the disturbance is moving in a northeastward pattern across the western and central parts of the Caribbean Sea.

Due to the looming threat, the US hurricane monitoring agency is keeping an eye in the following countries or territories:

• Jamaica
• Cuba
• Haiti
• Dominican Republic
• Bahamas
• Turks and Caicos Islands

The forecast also shows the potential occurrence of heavy rain in areas along the Caribbean coast of Central America and the Greater Antilles, a group of islands in North America. The NHC explains that the formation of the Caribbean weather disturbance is associated with a trough of low-pressure area in the region.

Southeast US Weather System

In addition to the developing disturbance in the southwestern Caribbean Sea, the NHC also reported the expected development of a non-tropical area of low-pressure air mass off the coast of Southeast US or near southern Florida along a surface trough by Thursday, November 16.

As the week progresses, the air mass is projected to move in a northeastward direction near the Bahamas and in the waters off the US East Coast. Unlike the Caribbean disturbance, the NHC does not expect the Southeast US weather system to intensify into a hurricane or tropical cyclone.

Regardless, meteorologists in similar weather events before had warned of dangerous hazards like coastal flooding, damaging winds, strong trip currents, large tidal waves, and heavy rain.