The semi-arid Mongolia in the region of Inner East Asia could have a barren climate comparable to regions in the American Southwest due to worsening heatwaves, which exacerbates the drying of the soil and causes even more heatwaves.
These are the findings of an international team of scientists who published their results in Science. They warned that the heatwaves and droughts occurring there have significantly increased in frequency in the last 20 years. They say that this has worrisome future implications.
The semi-arid Mongolia in the region of Inner East Asia could have a barren climate comparable to regions in the American Southwest due to worsening heatwaves, which exacerbates the drying of the soil and causes even more heatwaves.
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Conducting the study
They used data from tree rings and developed records of soil moisture and heatwaves, which suggest that the record droughts and high temperatures in recent years have been unprecedented over the last two and a half centuries.
The study found that the drying of the soil is accelerating the high regional temperatures. Together, they increasingly decrease soil water.
According to a study co-author from the University of Gothenburg in Sweden, Deliang Chen, more heatwaves cause more water losses from the soil, which causes even more heatwaves. They cannot tell when it will end.
Wet soil cools surface air by evaporation. If it has no more water, heat is directly transferred to the air. In heatwaves, soil moisture and near-surface air are directly connected.
Thus, there is no more soil moisture in East Asia's semi-arid climate to mitigate the high ambient temperatures.
Declining water
Mongolian Plateau lakes are now rapidly declining. In 2014, researchers discovered a 26% decline in lakes that are larger than one-kilometer square. Furthermore, they found that the largest lakes in the region had a larger-than-average size reduction.
According to the corresponding study author and South Korea Chonnam National University researcher Jee-Hoon Jeong, aside from the water disappearing in large lakes, the soil's water is disappearing, as well.
University of Gothenburg researcher and lead study author Peng Zhang says that the situation is dire for the region's ecosystem and is crucial for large herbivores such as camels, wild sheep, and antelope. He says they are already living on the edge, so that climate change may finally push these animals over it.
Data from tree rings
Based on the tree rings' data, co-author and South Korea Gwangju Institute of Science & Technology researcher Jin-Ho Yoon said that this confluence of severe droughts and increased heatwaves has not occurred over the last 260 years.
According to co-author and University of Gothenburg researcher Hans Linderholm, the trees seemed to feel these heatwaves, with conifer trees strongly responding to anomalous increases in temperature.
Based on the rings, the trees have not experienced anything like it during their entire existence.
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Future conditions
Department of Geography, Environment and Society University of Minnesota scientist Daniel Griffin, who was not part of the research, said he is concerned with the severity of future extreme events. If, as early as now, the conditions are already arid and hot in the last few centuries, future extreme levels may be much worse.
Inner East Asia, which encompasses and surrounds Mongolia, is interesting for climate researchers because it has a direct relationship to atmospheric circulations all over the world. The climatic conditions here have a profound influence on the Northern Hemisphere.
In Mongolia, the concurrence of this dryness and warming from heatwaves is seemingly approaching a possibly irreversible tipping point that can make the climate of Mongolia and Inner East Asia permanently arid.
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