Due to climate change, 2020 may be among the hottest years ever recorded despite the occurrence of La Niña. According to experts, the climate crisis is exacerbating natural events and is causing more frequent extreme weather.
The coming of La Niña
The expected La Niña is coming, and it serves as the herald of a northern hemisphere winter that is stormier and colder than normal. Nonetheless, 2020 is still likely to be among the warmest years ever recorded.
The La Niña was declared by the WMO or World Meteorological Organization to help various humanitarian organizations and governments cope with and prepare for the coming of extreme weather events worldwide.
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La Niña
La Niña is a complex weather pattern that results from changes in the ocean's temperature along the equatorial region of the Pacific Ocean. A colder or warmer water temperature in the sea in one section of the planet can influence the weather in other parts.
La Niña usually lasts from 9 to 12 months, although it can last for years. It usually occurs every 2 to 7 years.
During La Niña, the ocean surface's average temperatures in the east-to-central equatorial region of the Pacific are much cooler. If a year experiences La Niña, then the temperatures in winter are hotter than usual in the southeastern region while being cooler in the northwestern region.
Effects of climate change
According to WMO secretary-general Petteri Taalas, even if La Niña is a natural planetary climate system driver, it is occurring in the context of and against the background of anthropogenic climate change. This causes exacerbated extreme weather events, affecting many climatological and meteorological processes.
The possible impacts that can occur this year include abnormally drier conditions in the region of east Africa. This will exacerbate the problems that the region is already experiencing in terms of food security.
Meanwhile, in many parts of Australia and Southeast Asia, there will be wetter conditions. Atlantic hurricanes are also expected to become increasingly more intense. These are already being seen this year. The Caribbean region has already seen the most active hurricane season this year.
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El Niño versus La Niña
El Niño is the warmer phase of the so-called ENSO, a climatic phenomenon characterized by the alternating events of El Niño and La Niña. El Niño is expected to cause drought in India and Australia and an increase in Pacific tropical cyclones.
Meanwhile, La Niña is expected to decrease the temperatures of the eastern Pacific waters by a maximum of 3 to 5 degrees Celsius. This has the effect of cooling ambient temperatures worldwide.
Warming undeterred by La Niña
However, Taalas says that the cooling effect of La Niña is offset many times over by the ongoing global warming. Despite La Niña's cooling, this year is still expected to be among the hottest years ever recorded. The last five years since 2016 are shaping up to be the hottest five years ever.
Taalas explains that due to climate change, La Niña will still have conditions that are still warmer this 2020 than in the past hottest years of El Niño.
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