Blizzards Still Likely Despite Global Warming's Milder Winters

Don't toss out your shovels and snow-blowers just yet, researchers say. Global warming may bring milder winters, but blizzards are still very much in our future, a new study suggests.

While most areas in the Northern Hemisphere will likely experience less snowfall during winter months, new research finds that extreme snow events will still occur, even in a future with significant warming.

According to the study, low-elevation regions might see a 65 percent overall decrease in snowfall, yet only an eight percent decline in the amount of snow deposited during big snowstorms. What's more, in higher-latitude or higher-elevation regions, more snow might fall in extreme events, even as average overall snowfall declined.

"In some regions, it is possible for average snowfall to decrease, but the snowfall extremes actually intensify," study lead author Paul O'Gorman, an atmospheric scientist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), said in a news release.

O'Gorman and his team used computer simulations of daily snowfall to project climate change over a 100-year period. They found that while yearly average snowfall declines due to climate change in most regions, it actually increases in areas with very low surface temperatures.

For instance, places like Boston may see less snowy winters overall, but some years blizzards will swoop in and drop a foot or two of snow.

The findings suggest that such extreme events aren't good indicators of climate change.

"You might expect with a warmer climate there should be major changes in snowfall in general," O'Gorman explained. "But that seems to be true to a greater extent for average snowfall than for the intensities of the heaviest snowfall events."

Though, possibly a silver lining to all this is that extreme snow events can only occur within a narrow temperature range - a "sweet spot" that does not change with global warming.

But overall, the United States is already experiencing more intense snowstorms, the National Climate Assessment reported in May, with the biggest increases in the Northeast and Midwest.

"Those of us who live in the Northeast will likely continue to see occasional heavy snowstorms, especially in midwinter when temperatures are at their lowest," added Anthony Broccoli from Rutgers University, who was not involved in the study.

The study was published Wednesday in the journal Nature.