Volcanic Eruption Risk in Iceland Heats Up

After an intense series of small earthquake swarms, Iceland has elevated the threat level of one of its volcanoes to the second highest level possible, warning of an ever-increasing potential for eruption.

It has only been three years since Iceland's last volcanic eruption, but as of today, the Icelandic Meteorological Office (IMO), a public institution under the auspices of the Ministry for the Environment and Natural Resources, has elevated the threat level of Barðarbunga mountain from green to orange. This means that the volcano is showing "escalating unrest with increased potential of eruption."

This occured after the island contry experienced over 1,100 small earthquakes in the last three days alone, with more quakes likely to continue.

The quakes are tiny in magnitude, ranging around magnitude three, and can be easily missed by people further away from their epicenter. It is suspected that they are originating from increasing activity beneath the volcano Barðarbunga near the center of the island.

Earthquake swarms are traditionally associated with magma movement beneath the Earth's crust, and similar swarms were seen in 2011 just before the Grímsvötn mountain erupted, according to News of Iceland updates.

However, these swarms appear to be peaking. Starting seven years ago, seismic activity around Barðarbunga was escalating until the eruption of Grímsvötn, which is just south of Barðarbunga.

Now, things are quite literally heating up again, with the strongest quake so far (magnitude 4) occurring at 2:37 a.m. GMT on Monday.

"This is the strongest earthquake measured in the region since 1996," the IMO announced. "Presently there are no signs of eruption, but it cannot be excluded that the current activity will result in an explosive subglacial eruption, leading to an outburst flood (jökulhlaup) and ash emission. The situation is monitored closely."

However, don't start hastily telling friends and family in Iceland to pack their bags. Lorcan Roche Kelly at Agenda Research gave Business insider the low-down of what might happen once Barðarbunga blows its top.

Probable scenarios involve the eruption breaking through the thick sheet of ice that covers Barðarbunga. If this occurs, it could disrupt flights in the area for some time, depending heavily upon how much ash and smoke is produced.

However, even if it doesn't break through the ice, flood damage from the resulting melt water is expected.