From Needles to Paddles: Minnesota Forests are in for Some Big Changes

The iconic needle-leaved conifers of Minnesota's forests are due to face some big challenges in the approaching decades, according to researchers. A rising climate and shorter winters could mean less snow and more intense rainfall, tipping the scales away from conifers in favor of paddle-leaved plants.

According to a report released Thursday by the Unites States Department of Agriculture's Forest Service, a gradually warming climate over the Minnesota region will result in a very different forest than the one we see now - slowly changing from a boreal forest rich with conifers to a deciduous one with wide-leaved trees.

This change is predicted in a detailed report entitled "Minnesota Forest Ecosystem Vulnerability Assessment and Synthesis."

According to Michael T. Rains, Director of the Northern Research Station and the Forest Products Laboratory, this change is inevitable. All the same, the report stresses that knowing as much as they can about this shift can help officials determine if anything can be done to make sure things go smoothly.

"By planning ahead, foresters and other decision-makers can begin now to manage for resilient landscapes and ensure that the benefits that forests provide are sustained into the future," Rains said in a statement. "Forest Service science is delivering information and new technology that will help managers in Minnesota and throughout the nation meet this challenge."

According to the report, there is evidence that this gradual change is already underway. In a 23.5-million-acre region of Northeastern Minnesota, forested land is already showing signs that reduced snowfall, increasing temperatures and wet winter storms are causing white spruce and balsam fir trees to struggle. Meanwhile, American basswood, black cherry, eastern white pine, red maple, sugar maple and white oak are becoming increasingly prevalent, as the region's growing season becomes longer.

"We already know enough right now to begin planning for a range of possible futures. Our assessment gives forest managers in Minnesota the best possible science on the effects of climate change, so they can make climate-informed decisions about management today," lead author Stephen Hander concluded.

He adds that these changes should occur within the next hundred years, but predicting an exact timeline is difficult given the unpredictability of the world's changing climate.