"Dread" of Disasters Could Be an Imporant Political Tool

Officials should be considering how the public reacts to various natural disasters when making plans to mitigate or recover from these disasters. Understanding a region's "dread" of a natural disaster, a new study suggests, could help officials determine how much tax money should go towards addressing that threat.

According to a study published in the International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management, public concern can have a dire affect on mitigation plans for natural disaster. For instance, less common disasters commonly get more frequently updated and assessed by officials, compared to fire and flood plans, as the taxpayers are more worried about the unfamiliar.

The researchers write that in the absence of appropriate dread for disasters like flood and wildfire, public support and compliance with emergency plans can wane, leading to worse outcomes.

According to the study, the way disasters are presented by the media and the government is partialy to blame for this phenomenon. Most natural disaster reports focus on equivalent dollar losses overall as the statistic by which officials should make their decisions. However, these types of reports fail to consider the public's view of natural disasters - where numbers alone fail to portray the level of devastation inflicted.

To correct this, the authors of the study suggest a new framework for disaster assessment which includes measured levels of "dread" and "familiarity" in an affected region.

"Understanding how the public perceives the risk for various natural hazards can assist decision makers in developing and communicating policy decisions," the researchers said, according to an accompanying press release.

Likewise, this sort of data could help municipalities trying to help their region understand why their plans are not earning support. Projects to better educate people on the risks of flooding or fires before the fact could loosen taxpayer pockets.

Of course, there is a thin line between education and "alarmist propaganda" - a term being thrown around a lot by groups opposed to climate change mitigation plans.

However, recent lawsuits in Chicago show that if officials neglect to take preventative action against natural disasters, they will still be blamed for the resulting damage.

Public perception, the researchers argue, is then an invaluable factor to consider when drawing up policies.

The study was published in the International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management (Vol. 17, No. 3, pp.188-211)