Hurricane Season will be Less Severe, University Predicts

Researchers at Colorado State University are predicting a below-average hurricane season for the Atlantic basin in 2014, according to a release from the school. The university Tropical Meteorology Project team cites for its prediction the likely development of an El Nino event and the unusual cooling of the tropical and sub-tropical Atlantic Ocean.

Currently, nine named storms are predicted for the Atlantic hurricane season, which lasts from June through November. The average season has 12. Of the named storms, researchers expect three to become hurricanes and only one to reach "major hurricane strength," which is defined as an event with sustained winds of 111 miles per hour or greater.

"The tropical Atlantic has anomalously cooled over the past several months, and the chances of a moderate to strong El Nino event this summer and fall appear to be quite high," said Phil Klotzbach, co-author of the forecast. "Historical data indicate fewer storms form in these conditions."

The team bases its forecasts on more than 60 years of historical data, accounting for Atlantic sea surface temperatures, sea level pressures, vertical wind shear levels, warming of waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific - also known as El Nino - and other factors.

Last summer, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology released a report predicting increased frequency and intensity of hurricanes and cyclones if trends in climate change data continued to hold true. The controversial study claimed that by the end of the 21st century, greenhouse gas emissions would contribute to a 10 to 40 percent increase in the frequency of tropical cyclones and that each storm may be as much as 45 percent more powerful.

The Colorado State University team, however, predicts 2014 tropical cyclone activity will be about 60 percent of an average season. By comparison, 2013's tropical cyclone activity was about 40 percent of the average season.

The team's forecast is intended to provide a best estimate of activity to be experienced during the upcoming season and not an exact measure. While the overall activity might be less than usual, Klotzbach cautioned coastal residents to take the proper precautions.

"It takes only one landfall event near you to make this an active season," he said.

The study was originally reported on the university's website.