270 Million More Older People Will Suffer Dangerous Heat Level By 2050, Study Says

(Photo : Getty Images/ULISES RUIZ)

As a result of global warming and an aging population, older people's exposure to heat will at least double across all continents by 2050, according to a study that emphasizes the combined risk.

250 Million More

Up to 250 million more people who are 69 years of age or older will be exposed to dangerously high temperatures-defined as 37.5 degrees Celsius-than there are now.

The study issued a warning, stating that hotspots for biological and social vulnerability are likely to be created, along with higher than average numbers of older people and intense heat.

The report cautioned that the impact on health systems and global inequalities will be enormous since older individuals are more susceptible to high temperatures, and the populations most affected are often found in the hotter, less developed global south.

The rate at which the world's population is aging is unparalleled. More than one in five people on earth will be over 60 by the middle of the century, when the number of individuals 65 and older is expected to double to 2.1 billion.

The research projected that "two-thirds of them will live in low- and middle-income countries where extreme climate events are especially likely."

There is a distinct north-south difference across most continents, with the warmer, less wealthy southern hemisphere being more negatively impacted than the colder, wealthier northern hemisphere.

Because of its vast population and hot temperature, Asia will have roughly four times higher levels of older adult heat exposure than other regions relative to the total population. But there will be significant rises in every location.

By 2050, exposure will more than triple in South America and Europe compared to today and almost double in Oceania, North America, and Africa.

The regions with the greatest aging trends include North America, where a fifth of the population will be over 69 by 2050, and Europe, where a quarter of the population will reach that age.

However, because of their far larger populations, Asia and Africa will experience higher growth in terms of absolute numbers. These continents will bear a great deal more burden because they are also hotter and poorer.

Elder Mortality

As we age, our body's ability to regulate its temperature decreases. In addition, chronic conditions, including heart disease and respiratory disorders, are more common in the elderly, which increases the hazards associated with heat exposure.

A greater percentage are physically frail, live alone, and are dependent on dehydration-inducing drugs including laxatives, diuretics, and bumetanide (which lowers the amount of excess fluid in the body).

Elderly people have historically taken a greater death toll from heatwaves, especially those who are less mobile or live in sheltered accommodation with no air conditioning.

The high mortality rates among the elderly during the 2022 European heatwave, the deaths of residents in a Florida nursing home following a power outage in 2017, and the deaths of 3,500 older individuals during the 2015 heatwave in India and Pakistan are some of the incidents mentioned in the study.

Prior research on climate-demographic risk examined data at the national level. A more detailed subnational analysis of the numbers was provided by the new report.

This is significant since the effects of climate change differ greatly between regions within nations, especially in large, densely populated countries like China, India, and Indonesia. Additionally, it monitored acute exposure to brief bursts of intense heat as well as chronic exposure to high temperatures.

"The other key message is the inequality story. Countries in the global north and global south are very differently equipped to deal with this challenge. Societies with more infrastructure and knowledge are much more protected. This impact study clearly shows the need for a mechanism to adjust for the equity issue," said one of the authors, Giacomo Falchetta of the CMCC Foundation in Venice, Italy.

Falchetta expressed his optimism that the projections will improve society's readiness. He stated that national governments needed to modify public health information policies and medical systems, households needed to ensure that senior citizens had enough money for air conditioning, and cities needed to set aside additional areas for greenery and shade.