Leading Climate Scientists Expect Global Temperature To Rise Above Preindustrial Level This Century, Survey Says

(Photo : Getty Images/PRAKASH MATHEMA )

Leading climate experts from around the world predict that this century will see global temperatures rise by at least 2.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels, exceeding globally set targets and having disastrous effects on both humans and the environment.

Semi-Dystopian

Nearly half of the respondents, who are all members of the reputable Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), predict at least 3 degrees Celsius of global warming, while nearly 80% of them predict at least 2.5 degrees Celsius. Just 6% predicted that the globally set 1.5-degree Celsius threshold would be reached.

Numerous scientists predict a "semi-dystopian" future in which heatwaves, wildfires, floods, and storms that are far more intense and frequent than those that have previously occurred will cause famines, conflicts, and mass migration.

Since 2018, The Guardian, who conducted the survey, has been in touch with every lead author or review editor of IPCC reports that is reachable. Out of 843 scientists, 380 replied.

The IPCC's reports, which are authored by specialists in the social and physical sciences and have been endorsed by all governments, are the gold standard for evaluations of climate change. Based on the results, a large number of the world's most knowledgeable people predict that the next few decades will see widespread climate disruption.

Despite just 1.2 degrees Celsius of average global warming over the previous four years, the climate crisis is already seriously harming people's lives and means of subsistence throughout the world.

Many scientists expressed their sense of helplessness, rage, and fear at the governments' inaction in the face of overwhelming scientific data.

Gretta Pecl of the University of Tasmania believes that during the next five years, there will be a significant upheaval in society.

"[Authorities] will be overwhelmed by extreme events. After extreme events, food production will be disrupted. I could not feel greater despair over the future," she added.

However, many asserted that the fight against climate change must go on because every degree Celsius that is averted will lessen misery for people on Earth.

Massive Preparations

The experts explained the reasons for the global inability to address the climate crisis. Nearly three-quarters of the respondents blamed a lack of political will, while another 60% pointed the finger at vested business interests like the fossil fuel sector.

Many also brought up inequality and the rich world's unwillingness to assist the poor, who bear the brunt of the effects of climate change.

Massive preparations were now required, according to the scientists, to shield humanity from the worst of the impending climate disasters.

The goal of 1.5 degrees Celsius was set in order to avert the worst effects of the climate catastrophe and is widely regarded as a crucial benchmark for global negotiations. The globe is currently on track to warm by roughly 2.7 degrees Celsius, and according to the survey, not many IPCC experts believe that the world will make the massive effort needed to lower that.

Only around 25% of the IPCC experts who answered expressed optimism that the rise in global temperature would be limited to 2 degrees Celsius or less.

"I am convinced that we have all the solutions needed for a 1.5C path and that we will implement them in the coming 20 years. But I fear that our actions might come too late and we cross one or several tipping points," said Henry Neufeldt, at the UN's Copenhagen Climate Centre.