Climate Change Can Cause Increase Extreme Winter Storms With Strong Winds and Rainfall In UK And Ireland, Study Says

(Photo : Getty Images/Carl Court)

A recent research said that climate change will result in more intense winter storms that combine high winds and heavy rainfall over the UK and Ireland.

Climate Warm

Scientists from Newcastle University and the Met Office led the latest study, which looked into the potential effects of climate change in the future on compound wind-rain extremes-that is, instances in which extremely high winds and precipitation fall at the same time.

In order to give a glimpse on the possible changes in these extreme events, scientists have analyzed data from climate simulations covering the control (1981-2000) and future (2060-2081) period.

According to their results, these events are predicted to get more severe as the climate warms and stronger winds and greater rainfall occur simultaneously.

The primary cause of these changes is an increase in rainfall, which is a thermodynamic reaction to temperature rise. A stronger jet stream and its southerly migration, which delivers storms across warmer regions and causes additional increases in rainfall, are additional contributory factors.

The increase in intensity, according to the scientists, may result in windstorms occurring more frequently when there is intense rainfall and flooding. This could present problems for coastal areas that are vulnerable to compound flooding as well as emergency response resources because there may be a larger accumulation of individual impacts to infrastructure, such as rail and electricity networks.

"Our work shows that such compound extremes will occur more frequently as our climate warms and likely bring more severe impacts, and a higher aggregation of separate damages arising from wind and flooding which may stretch emergency response resources," study lead author, Dr. Colin Manning, said.

Manning also serves as a Research Associate at Newcastle University's School of Engineering and Visiting Scientist of the Met Office in Hadley Centre.

The group examined compound wind-rain extremes and their potential future modifications using a variety of techniques. Based on the occurrence of an extra-tropical cyclone (ETC) over the UK and Ireland, they employed an event-based approach. The Wind intensity Index (WSI) and Rainfall Severity Index (RSI) were used by the scientists to determine the intensity of these systems by connecting extreme wind and rainfall episodes to them.

Wind, Rainfall

The team classified events based on wind and rainfall parameters and computed return periods (RPs) for both individual and joint extremes, indicating their likelihood. Furthermore, in order to comprehend the shifting intensity contributions of strong wind gusts and rainfall in upcoming simulations, the researchers determined local co-occurrences of both phenomena.

She pointed out that this was citing the importance of considering compounding effects, including co-occurrences of different hazards, as well as the clustering of extreme events, in fully capturing the possible effects of climate change.

This work lays the groundwork for future studies to explore the causes underlying compound wind-rain extremes. To determine whether the findings hold true for a wider variety of climate models, further study will need to take this into account.

In order to enable stakeholders better understand their risk and select the most cost-effective modifications to lower hazards, research is also needed to comprehend and quantify the relationship between these compound extremes and the ensuing repercussions.