13 Million Smoking Deaths Could Be Avoided

One third of the world's smokers live in China, so any effective policy reducing Chinese smoking could have enormous health impacts, even globally. In their Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC), the World Health Organization recommend many opportunities to curb tobacco use, opportunities which researchers put to the test. Currently, China only bans smoking on public transportation and their 2009 tobacco tax was ineffective at raising consumer prices.

In a study published recently in the British Medical Journal, an international research team used a version of the SimSmoke Tobacco Control Policy model, which uses smoking prevalence and other factors to predict smoking-related deaths, to estimate the health impact of China's smoking policies from 2015 through 2050.

If the status quo remains, researchers predict that the portion of actively smoking males will drop from 51.3 percent in 2015 to 46.5 percent in 2050, and the portion of smoking females will drop from 2.1 percent to 1.3 percent over the same time period. In total, the researchers predict over 50 million smoking related deaths from 2012 through 2050, according to a press release announcing the findings.

If the cigarette tax is raised to 75 percent of the package price, the researchers predicted a drop of 10 percent in active male and female smokers by 2015. By 2050, smoking prevalence would drop to 13 percent for males and 12 percent for females. This quick and stable smoking reduction would save approximately 3.5 million lives, according to the study.

Smoke-free air laws would show very similar "potent and immediate" effects, with about 3.4 million deaths being adverted by 2050. A comprehensive marketing ban, similar to the one existing in the US, would reduce smoking by 4 percent, saving the lives of over 2 million by 2050.

A high intensity tobacco control campaign and stronger health warning were each projected to save around 1 million lives by 2050.

Across the board adoption of all of WHO's anti smoking framework "would lead to as much as a 34 percent relative reduction in male smoking prevalence by 2020, and a 41 percent reduction by 2050," according to the researchers. Despite the time it takes for policies to take hold, researchers expect that half a million lives could be saved annually by 2050.

Substantial health gains are possible through policy changes in China. The authors paper concluded that "complete and simultaneous implementation of all FCTC policies was projected to incrementally reduce smoking by about 40 percent relative to the 2050 status quo levels and to prevent approximately 12.8 million smoking attributable deaths and 154 million life years lost by 2050."