Global Price Of Bananas Likely To Increase Due To Climate Change, Industry Experts Say

Bananas are expected to get more expensive as climate change impacts a much-loved fruit, according to one of the world's leading industry experts.

Temperature Rise As An Enormous Threat

This week's World Banana Forum in Rome brought together industry leaders and researchers to deliver a warning about the worldwide impact of climate change on production and supply networks.

As temperatures rise above acceptable ranges for banana growth, the risk of low yields increases. While banana supply can withstand such short-term weather events, researchers are concerned about the mounting hazards posed by global warming and the diseases that follow.

"I think climate change is really an enormous threat to the banana sector," said Pascal Liu, senior economist at the UN's Food and Agriculture Organisation.

Rising temperatures will have a negative influence on producers in Guatemala, El Salvador, and Costa Rica during the next few decades.

Other countries, including large banana producer Ecuador, appear to be in a "safe space" for climate change.

Bananas are farmed in over 150 countries, with 105 million metric tons of fruit produced each year. It is the world's most popular and inexpensive fruit, ranking as the most traded fruit and the sixth most traded agricultural product. The global export value of the banana trade was projected to be US $8 billion in 2016, with a retail value ranging from $20 to $25 billion.

Climate change, in addition to rising temperatures, is making it easier for diseases that harm banana trees, particularly the TR4 fungus, to spread. Experts describe it as one of the "most aggressive and destructive fungi in the history of agriculture."

Once a plantation becomes infected, all of the banana trees are killed, and specialists say it is exceedingly difficult to eradicate.

The fungus has also altered to endanger the Cavendish, the world's most popular banana species.

"We know that the spores of this Fusarium Wilt are extremely resistant, and they can be spread by flooding, they can be spread by strong winds. So, this type of phenomenon will disseminate the disease much faster than if you had more normal weather patterns," Lui added.

Temperature increases and catastrophic disease outbreaks pose a risk to fresh fruit supply networks, driving up costs.

Prepare Countries

Some experts argue that current price increases on grocery store shelves could help prepare the countries where the fruit is grown to deal with the effects of global warming.

They argue that consumers should pay more for bananas now to prevent the problem from worsening.

Higher prices would help the nations that farm bananas prepare for climate change by implementing mitigating measures, protecting soils, and paying their workers a greater salary.

Consumers have profited from extremely low-cost bananas over the last few decades.

"Higher prices will actually not make a big difference at the consumer end, but will make a large difference along the value chain and enable a lot more environmental sustainability," said Sabine Altendorf, an economist focused on global value chains for agricultural products at the United Nations' Farming and Agriculture Organization (FAO).