A recent study suggests that El Niño is expected to accelerate global warming and cause record-breaking temperatures from the Amazon to Alaska by 2024.
Scientists also predict extreme temperatures in coastal areas of India, the Philippines, and the Caribbean until June.
Extreme Heat
The natural process in which heat is released from the western Pacific Ocean is known to raise global surface temperatures, and it helped 2023 break the record for the hottest year by a significant margin.
El Niño caused extreme heat in the second half of 2023, affecting people in North America, Europe, China, South America, and Madagascar as the climate catastrophe worsened.
The new analysis use computer models to identify potential regional hotspots in the first half of 2024.
The researchers considered two scenarios: a strong El Niño and a moderate one. The current El Niño is projected to be one of the top five strongest since 1950.
The team predicts a 1.1-1.2°C increase in global average surface temperature from July 2023 to June 2024 due to a strong El Niño. This is compared to the 1951-1980 average.
This indicates that the model is underestimating temperatures, as this threshold has already been exceeded. From January 2023 to January 2024, the average worldwide surface temperature was more than 1.5°C higher than the 1850-1900 average, and in January 2024, it was 1.7°C higher.
"There's a real value to having this kind of a warning, even if it's not precisely timed to a particular season. It gives you some lead time for preparing on how best to protect lives, property, living marine resources and economic development," says Michael McPhaden at the NOAA Pacific Marine Environment Laboratory in Seattle, Washington.
The study also reveals that there was a 90% possibility that global temperatures would break new records over this time frame.
"Intense heatwaves and tropical cyclones, combined with [human-caused] global sea level rise, [mean] densely populated coastal areas are facing an enormous and urgent climate crisis that challenges our current capacity for adaptation, mitigation and risk management," said Dr Ning Jiang, at the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences in Beijing, and his co-authors.
He also stressed that this coming warmth increases the likelihood of year-round maritime heatwaves, as well as the threat of wildfires and other catastrophic repercussions in Alaska and the Amazon basin.
Seas, Coastal Locations
Seas and coastal locations are especially vulnerable because the ocean may retain more heat than land, allowing hot temperatures to last longer.
El Niño and La Niña are natural climate cycles that occur on Earth. This accelerates and moderates the significant underlying trend of global warming, which is produced by rising levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere from fossil fuel use.
The study modeled the impact of El Niño on regional surface air temperatures from July 2023 to June 2024, as the phenomenon typically peaks between November and January.
The scientists discovered that record-breaking temperatures in the Amazon are probable by 2024, increasing the risk of flames. Severe fires and drought devastated the Amazon in late 2023, and February's fire emissions established a new monthly record.
The scientists predicted that record heat in Alaska will cause glaciers and permafrost to melt, as well as coastal erosion.
Related Article : El Nino Alert: Bureau of Meteorology Warns of Drier Conditions for Australia in Coming Months
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