Chile Wildfire: Climate Change No Significant Link To The Wildfire, Study Says

The devastating forest fires that killed more than 130 people in Chile this month were not caused by human-caused climate change or the El Nino weather phenomenon, according to the findings of international research.

Improper Land Use

Improper land use had a greater influence, it was discovered, with the spread in recent decades of pine and eucalyptus monocultures-much more flammable than natural vegetation-and the growth of informal settlements in forest areas.

According to a study conducted by researchers from South America and Europe for World Weather Attribution (WWA), which seeks to quantify how climate change influences the intensity and likelihood of a specific extreme weather event, the risk of fire is significantly increasing.

On February 2, multiple fires broke out in the coastal town of Vina del Mar in Chile's Valparaiso region.

The infernos killed at least 133 people and damaged 7,000 homes, making it the biggest natural disaster to strike Chile since a 2010 earthquake and tsunami killed almost 500 people.

The WWA study found that fire-conducive weather conditions in the area-high temperatures, low humidity, and strong winds-had not been significantly altered by climate change or by El Nino.

Fire-conducive weather is characterized by elevated temperatures, low humidity, little rainfall, and strong winds that continue over time. To capture the features of this event, we employ a fire weather index (HDWI) that takes into account high wind speeds, high temperatures, and low humidity.

Chilean authorities are examining whether the fires were intentionally started.

The WWA stated that present fire risk mitigation measures were insufficient and should include "improved spatial planning," better coordination, and community involvement in fire prevention.

Fires In The Future

But this does not mean that the threat of global warming should be ignored.

"Unless the world rapidly stops burning fossil fuels, fire danger... will increase. The risk of an increase in dangerous fire weather conditions attributable to human-induced climate change needs to be taken very seriously," the study said.

Joyce Kimutai, a researcher at Imperial College London's Grantham Institute and co-author of the study, said they expect a lot of these fires to happen in the future.

In the present global scenario of 1.2 degrees Celsius (2.2 degrees Fahrenheit) of warming relative to pre-industrial times, the scientists predicted that a four-day period with an HDWI equal to the recent fires would occur once every 30 years.

"However, if warming reaches 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit), it's likely the fire-prone weather will become more intense around Vina del Mar and Valparaiso," said Tomas Carrasco, a researcher at the University of Chile and co-author of the report.

According to the United Nations, current climate promises indicate that temperatures will rise by 2.9 degrees Celsius (5.2 degrees Fahrenheit) this century.

The report's authors also discovered that urban expansion and land use change played a significant role in the fires' lethal nature.

According to Mauricio Santos of the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre in Colombia, the spread of pine and eucalyptus tree plantations has eliminated natural firebreak barriers over decades, while urban areas continue to encroach on forests.

Santos said they discovered that the most devastating fires occurred in places with substantial land-use changes and insufficient urban planning. He also stated that stronger warning systems, evacuation planning, and fireproofing systems are required.