China Off Track To Meet Climate Target Due To Increase In Carbon Dioxide Emission, Study Says

China is at risk of missing major climate targets for 2025 and must reduce fossil fuel consumption while maintaining record renewable energy investment to get back on track, according to research.

CO2 Emission

Beijing is the world's leading source of greenhouse gas pollution, as they depended heavily on coal and oil to power the country's economy throughout the pandemic and accelerate its recovery. However, as a result, there has been a significant increase in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, which contribute to global warming.

China set a number of climate targets as part of its 14th five-year plan, which spans from 2021 to 2025, including reducing carbon intensity (CO2 emissions per unit of economic production) by 18% from 2020 levels over this time frame.

According to Lauri Myllyvirta, Helsinki-based lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (Crea) and senior fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute, meeting this target would result in CO2 emissions falling by 4% to 6% by 2025 from 2023 levels.

However, China's energy sector CO2 emissions are expected to rise by 5.2% in 2023, according to a study released by Carbon Brief, a British website specializing in climate research and policy.

The country produces about one-third of the world's CO2 emissions, and how it manages the transition to a clean-energy economy has implications for all nations and the rate of global climate change.

Coal Power

The analysis is based on official and commercial data. It demonstrates that a significant rise in electricity consumption and below-average rainfall increased demand for coal power in 2023 in China, while the government's zero-COVID policy boosted demand for oil.

The lack of rain for several years reduced hydropower generation in portions of the country, increasing dependency on coal power. Furthermore, some provinces saw developing coal power plants as a method to boost economic growth and energy security.

China is also increasing its coal power plant fleet. Since the beginning of 2022, 218 gigawatts (GW) of new coal power plants have been approved. According to the analysis, construction has already begun on around 90 GW of this capacity by the end of 2023. Coal contributes to around 60% of China's electrical generation.

Despite President Xi Jinping's commitment to carefully regulating coal usage and new coal power plants, the investigation found that both have accelerated dramatically. This calls into question his promise to reduce coal consumption between 2026 and 2030, as well as to achieve net-zero emissions by 2060.

If China maintains its record-breaking deployment of renewable energy, notably wind and solar, it should be able to meet the majority of its climate commitments, according to Myllyvirta.

Renewable energy investment in China has increased dramatically during the last two years. As renewables become increasingly prevalent, coal's share of electricity generation is likely to decline.

According to S&P Global, China's National Energy Administration, and the International Energy Agency, it added 301 GW of renewables in 2023 alone, primarily wind and solar, accounting for approximately 59% of the world's total renewable capacity additions that year.