Ancient Underthrust Rocks in Prehistoric Subduction Zones Could Help in Earthquake Prediction [Study]

Earthquake prediction has long been a challenge for seismologists and other scientists around the globe since the geological phenomenon can occur at any time and any location with little or without warning. The chance of a powerful earthquake or tremor, which poses a serious threat, can only be determined through long-term forecasts in a general area or region on Earth.

Throughout history, no individual or group has yet to successfully or accurately predict a major earthquake: including its date and time, location, and magnitude. These are the three elements essential to make an earthquake, according to the United States Geological Survey (USGS). While small earthquakes occur all the time, high-intensity tremors are rare but is something to watch out.

Now, a new study led by researchers from Pennsylvania State University found a potential solution to the dilemma of earthquake forecast: ancient underthrust rocks in prehistoric subduction zones. Using a theoretical model, the researchers determined that rocks once buried beneath the Earth, where tectonic plates bump with each other, could understand tectonic activity between quakes.

Earthquake Prediction

Despite the availability of sophisticated seismic-detecting equipment and technology, an all-encompassing, accurate earthquake prediction is still a long way to go.

According to the USGS, we are still uncertain how we can make such a feat and are not expecting to successfully predict major earthquakes any time in the foreseeable future.

Although some people in the past say they can predict earthquakes, the said US Government agency assert these are all failed predictions. Below are the three reasons provided by the USGS as to why statements of a successful earthquake forecast are false:

• Their predictions are very general
• Their predictions lack all of the three elements (mentioned earlier) for earthquake prediction
• Their predictions are neither grounded on scientific fact nor passed through the scientific method

Furthermore, this rationale does not include predicting aftershocks or small earthquake swarms, which are expected to occur after a main identifiable earthquake.

Ancient Underthrust Rocks

Since authorities in the field of geology and other related areas acknowledged that earthquake prediction is still far from being completed, scientists continue to further understand this mystery. Unlike weather forecasts of hurricanes and other storms, earthquakes have no concrete parameters that would indicate that they would occur in the coming hours, days, weeks, or months.

Regardless, the Penn State researchers have made progress in the dilemma by understanding the underthrust rocks in ancient subduction zones. Determining this area could help scientists better predict the behavior of these zones during periods between major earthquakes. Evidence of their findings was based on clues from rock formations in Alaska and Japan.

The new research paper is entitled 'A pressure solution flow law for the seismogenic zone: Application to Cascadia' and it was published in the journal Science Advances on January 24. The authors of the study arrived at their conclusion by analyzing deformed metasedimentary rocks and observing exposed rocks from ancient subduction zones.