Extreme Precipitation Over Land Increases Exponentially Due to Climate Change [Study]

Extreme rainfall over land has increased exponentially due to climate change, indicating a future of more catastrophic flooding and landslides unless current greenhouse emissions are mitigated or halted.

This is according to a new study led by researchers in Germany, who said that previous climate models had underestimated the said extreme precipitation in global warming. The findings came after scientists in recent years discovered the connection of extreme rainfall events globally.

For decades, it has become a general knowledge the climate change alters the pattern of weather events, including extreme rainfall. This alteration increases the frequency and intensity of these events and other natural disasters, including flash flooding and landslides. However, the exact correlation between extreme rainfall and climate change has not been explored fully, a gap which scientists in the new research acknowledged.

Extreme Rainfall Events

Extreme rainfall events are known for causing disruptive and damaging outcomes in a certain area or region that it affects. This type of precipitation can occur due to the help not only of climate seasons but also weather conditions, including heat, that make it conducive for rainfall to happen. In recent years, extreme rain has impacted both different parts of the world.

In the study published in the Journal of Climate on Monday, November 27, researchers explored model discrepancies that limit the application of projections concerning extreme precipitation over land. Using a different approach, the research team from the Potsdam Institute of Climate Impact Research (PIK) in Germany studied data on the frequency and intensity of daily extreme rainfall over land in 21 "next generation" climate models, which were previously used by a UN body in its global assessments.

According to the scientific paper's lead author, Max Kotz, the study confirms that both the intensity and frequency of extreme heavy rainfall are increasing exponentially for every increment of global warming. This means that future generations in the coming years and decades could expect the occurrence of extreme weather events such as rainfall in the context of climate change.

Heavy Precipitation and Climate Change

Climate scientists in the past have warned that the continuance of greenhouse gas emissions and fossil fuel burning could lead to more violent, common extreme weather events, including storms, and natural disasters like droughts and heatwaves. Yet, there is no absolute correlation provided as to how and where will these natural catastrophes occur, given the fact that weather events can be predicted short term.

According to the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), a larger percentage of precipitation has manifested in the form of intense single-day events. The prevalence of these events remained steady between 1910 and the 1980s but has risen since then. In the US, EPA data shows that extreme precipitation or extreme one-day precipitation events have increased significantly from 1910 to 2020 in the Contiguous 48 States of the country.