Climate change is one of the most pressing challenges facing humanity and the natural world. It affects the distribution and diversity of plant species, which in turn have profound impacts on ecosystem services, food security, and human well-being.
However, predicting how plants will respond to changing environmental conditions is not easy, as there are many factors involved, such as temperature, precipitation, soil, and competition.
A new study published in the journal Nature offers a paradigm shift regarding lifecycles in the plant world and uses big data to predict the future impact of climate change on the global distribution of annual and perennial plants.
The study was led by Dr. Niv DeMalach of the Robert H. Smith Faculty of Agriculture, Food and Environment at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem; Prof. Itay Mayrose of the George S. Wise Faculty of Life Sciences at Tel Aviv University; and Dr. Tyler Poppenwimer, formerly a post-doctoral student at the Hebrew University and Tel Aviv University and now a researcher at the FDA.
What are annual and perennial plants?
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Plant species can be differentiated into perennials (plants that usually live for longer than a year) and annuals (plants that complete their lifecycle within a single growing season, and die after producing seeds).
The large majority of species in nature are perennials, as this category includes grasses as well as trees and bushes, and they are very important for the ecosystem as a whole due to their central role in moderating climate changes throughout that system and preventing soil erosion and flooding.
Among crops, the numbers are reversed, with annuals taking up around 70% of agricultural lands and constituting some 80% of the foods consumed by humans.
This is because annuals are more efficient at producing seeds, which are a source of carbohydrates and proteins and form the backbone of the human diet.
For decades, scientists have been interested in the factors influencing the distribution and lifecycles of perennial and annual plant life, and the competition between the two, to understand the laws of nature and the adaptation of different species to environmental conditions.
Various mathematical models have been developed to describe the conditions that affect perennials and annuals, but they have not been tested against empirical data on a global scale.
How did the researchers create a unique database of plant lifecycles?
The researchers created a new and unique global database, which makes it possible to establish the prevalence of different lifecycles around the globe.
It uses empirical tools and big data to examine theoretical paradigms about how human disturbance is affecting annual plants and their global distribution.
The database brings together in one place, for the first time, data about the lifecycles of some 235,000 species (67% of the species known to science), which were collected over the last 80 years from various sources throughout the world, including millions of observations of species across the globe12:27.
The database allows the researchers to examine the relationship between the lifecycles of plants and various environmental factors, such as temperature, precipitation, seasonality, soil, elevation, and human population density.
The researchers used statistical methods and machine learning algorithms to analyze the data and identify the patterns and trends that explain the global distribution of annual and perennial plants.
What did the researchers find out about the impact of climate change on plant lifecycles?
The researchers found that annuals are common in regions in which summers are marked by particularly high temperatures and low rainfall.
This contrasts with the previously accepted view, which did not consider the seasons of the year to be a relevant parameter and instead focused solely on annual averages of temperature and precipitation.
The researchers also found that annuals are expected to benefit more with the rise in human population density due to climate change, which could prove devastating for the ecosystem.
This is because annuals are more resilient to disturbances and can quickly colonize new habitats, while perennials are more sensitive and require more stable conditions to survive and reproduce.
The researchers suggest that their findings have important implications for the conservation and management of plant biodiversity, as well as for agriculture and food security.
They recommend that policymakers and practitioners take into account the effects of climate change and human disturbance on the lifecycles of plants, and devise strategies to protect and restore the balance between annual and perennial plants in different regions of the world.
The researchers hope that their database and study will serve as a valuable resource for future research on plant ecology and evolution, and will inspire more collaboration and data sharing among scientists and institutions around the world.
