No Direct US Impacts Expected Throughout Remainder Of Atlantic Hurricane Season, Experts Say

Weather experts said that the remaining days of the Atlantic Hurricane Season has no expected direct impact towards the United States.

(Photo : Getty Images/LEILA MACOR)

The assessment was pronounced after meteorologists had analyzed ongoing weather patterns across the basin as well as the various weather forecasting models.

"The hurricane season is over for the United States, we are not expecting any [more] landfalling storms," AccuWeather Chef On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said.

No Direct Impact

Meteorologists further explained that one of the biggest factors of the late-season hurricane forecast was the wind shear, which will suppress tropical activity in the coming weeks.

They defined wind shear as the change in wind speed and direction throughout different layers of the atmosphere, noting that for a certain tropical system to develop and strengthen, wind shear needs to be low.

Studies have shown that the higher the wind shear, the more difficult it is for a tropical system to organize and strengthen.

On the other hand, the water temperatures across most of the Atlantic hurricane basin remain above the historical average and this phenomenon has provided a key ingredient to fuel a fledgling tropical system.

Weather experts noted that while the chances for new tropical development are low, a small break in the disruptive wind shear could present an opportunity for a new tropical system to tap into the warm waters and take shape.

At present, meteorologists are looking at the southwestern Caribbean for possible weather events, however, no system has been anticipated to form in this area in the short term.

They also pointed out that even if a tropical storm does develop in the Caribbean, it is unlikely that it will make a direct strike on the contiguous US.

The Season's Accumulated Cyclone Energy

Weather experts said that the near-record number of storms paired with several long-lived hurricanes have assisted in improving the season's Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE).

Experts defined ACE as a metric that is being utilized to measure the intensity and longevity of tropical systems.

They explained that a weak, short-lived system will generate a small amount of ACE, while a powerful hurricane that usually lasts for more than a week often results in a large ACE.

Meanwhile, as of November 7, the ACE for the 2023 hurricane season was 145.6, which is above the historical average of 122.5, according to the Colorado State University.

They noticed that this year's ACE was just a tick below the 2021 season, which had an ACE of 145.7.

In total, there were 19 named storms this year and of that number, only three made landfall in the US as tropical systems.

To recall, Tropical Storm Harold was the first to hit and make landfall on Padre Island, Texas in August.

One week later, Hurricane Idalia struck the shores off Florida as a powerful Category 4 hurricane, the strongest system to make landfall during the season.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Ophelia was the third and final tropical system to directly impact the contiguous US as it made landfall in North Carolina on September 22.

There are still three weeks left for this year's hurricane season.

According to previous forecast, the Atlantic Hurricane Season will end on November 30.