Atlantic Tropical Disturbance: New System ‘AL92’ Has 70% Chance to Become Storm in 48 Hours: US NHC Says

A new tropical disturbance has formed in the Eastern Atlantic Ocean. According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the new system has a high chance of intensifying into a tropical storm in the coming hours and days.

Moving in a northwestward direction, the weather disturbance can pose a threat to the Caribbean region and the southeastern United States as the current week progresses.

Over the past month, the Atlantic region saw an active hurricane season that led to the formation of several hurricanes like Philippe and Lee, as well as tropical storms such as Ophelia.

During the passage of these storms, Atlantic Canada, the US East Coast, and even Bermuda became the most affected regions. The common Atlantic storm hazards were heavy rain, flash flooding, storm surge, and tidal waves due to strong winds.

Atlantic Tropical Disturbance

In its latest tropical weather forecast, the NHC at 1:42 a.m. EDT (local time) on Tuesday, October 10, reported that the Atlantic tropical disturbance, named "AL92", has a 70% chance of intensifying into a cyclone or more organized storm in the next 48 hours. Meanwhile, it has an 80% chance of cyclone formation in the next seven days.

Last spotted in the Eastern Atlantic Ocean, several hundred miles southwest of Cabo Verde Islands, the NHC map shows AL92 is bringing showers and thunderstorms in a large area in the region. While showing small developments since Monday, October 9. The weather forecast also adds that environmental conditions surrounding the tropical disturbance suggests of gradual development, where it can become a tropical depression first.

US Weather Forecast

While AL92 is still far from the US, Tropical Storm Lidia is making an impact in Central America as it intensified into a hurricane late on Monday, while moving towards Mexico. The NHC issuing warning for various weather hazards like dangerous winds and heavy rain, as well as flooding threat across Mexico's Pacific coast.

Before the potential arrival of AL92 into the mainland or coastal areas of the US, a massive storm system has been forecasted to hit the Great Plains and Rocky Mountains regions of the country, according to the latest US weather forecasts.

In addition, the National Weather Service (NWS) on Tuesday issued a short-range forecast about the movement of unsettled, cold weather into the Eastern US from the Pacific Northwest and northern California by midweek.

Meanwhile, the accumulation of tropical moisture is also expected to bring heavy rain and flash flooding for parts of the Gulf Coast until Wednesday, October 11, according to the US weather agency. The NWS forecast is valid from Tuesday until Thursday, October 12.

The US is currently in its 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, which started on June 1 and is projected to last until November 30. In August, the forecasters from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said there will be an above-normal Atlantic season this year.