Cold Front to Generate Heavy Rain, Potential Flooding in the Ark-La-Tex Region [NWS]

A cold front is forecast to produce heavy rain and potential flooding in the Arkansas, Louisiana, and Texas area, also called the Ark-La-Tex region, according to the National Weather Service (NWS) on Thursday, October 5.

The latest US weather forecast shows that the weather front will affect the region in the coming days, causing potential disruption to road traffic and air travel. Storms are also expected to move to South Texas, producing localized rainfall.

The NWS weather forecast comes almost a week after extreme flooding due to torrential rain drenched different parts of New York City, submerging not only streets but also subway stations, especially in the Brooklyn area.

Furthermore, the looming front arrives after earlier forecasts that the central and eastern US will be subject to summer-like temperatures during the first week of October, as well as chilly air forecast in the Northeast this coming weekend.

NWS Forecast

The NWS' Weather Prediction Center (WPC) issued its new short-range forecast at 3:35 a.m. EDT (local time) on Thursday, states that a cold front stretching from the Great Lakes to the Southern Plains will gradually move eastward to the US East Coast by Saturday, October 7.

On the other hand, the WPC warns that a secondary front is moving southward from the Upper Great Lakes to the Central Plains as of Thursday, where it will reinforce the lead front as it moves to the Middle Mississippi Valley.

Aside from the cold front, tropical moisture over the Western Gulf Coast will bring showers and thunderstorms over the Texas coast, as well as in Louisiana, southern Mississippi, and southwestern Alabama. Furthermore, the US weather agency warns heavy rain in the mentioned areas will create localized flash flooding, affecting areas that often experience rapid runoff due to heavy rain.

The said NWS forecast is valid until Saturday but can still be changed by the agency within the period with little or no warning.

US Cold Front

While the US is still far from its 2023 winter season, cold fronts are still possible even during the fall season, which spans from September to November in the Northern Hemisphere each year.

In relation to the recent forecast, the so-called "fall front" can bring severe weather, as the storms threaten the Central US while replacing record-breaking heat reported in recent days.

Fall Season

Earlier this year, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issued a forecast that no states in the US will experience a colder-than-normal fall season but says that a large part of the Midwest and Great Plains region have equal chances of experiencing warm or cool weather.

In addition, the NOAA says hot temperatures are expected for some states with at least few rain clouds; with only the Southeast US and Alaska receiving above-average precipitation. Furthermore, the Pacific Northwest, Southwest, and Great Lakes are anticipated to receive less rain than usual.