'Homebrew' Tropical Storm Grows Stronger on Path to US East Coast, Experts Warn Potential Tropical Cyclone 16

The 'homebrew' tropical storm is intensifying as it nears the US East Coast, bringing with it rough seas and heavy rain. This development is Potential Tropical Cyclone 16, according to experts.

Potential Tropical Cyclone 16: 'Homebrew' Tropical Storm

Since a few days back, AccuWeather forecasters have been issuing alerts for a developing tropical system just off the southeastern US coast, describing it as 'homegrown'. Initially designated as Invest 99L by the National Hurricane Center (NHC), it's now Potential Tropical Cyclone 16 as of Thursday, 11 AM EDT.

Satellite imagery displays vigorous thunderstorms and early banding formation, indicative of potential tropical or subtropical development. This system is poised to bring heavy rain, strong winds, and rough seas to the East Coast from late this week into the weekend.

Landfall: North Carolina Then the Rest of the US East Coast

As the system progresses away from the recently cooled waters of Hurricane Lee and enters the warm Gulf Stream along the Atlantic coast, it's poised for further development. Water temperatures in this region range between 80-85 degrees Fahrenheit, surpassing the critical minimum of 80 degrees for tropical development.

AccuWeather meteorologists, now refer to it as a tropical rainstorm, alerting the public to potential impacts such as heavy rain, strong winds, and rough seas. Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski expects it to evolve into a tropical or subtropical storm, given its storm structure.

The storm is forming at the boundary between cool, dry air to the northwest and warm, humid air to the southeast, resembling a non-tropical storm rather than a fully tropical one.

It's predicted to make landfall in eastern North Carolina on Saturday morning, possibly transitioning into a named tropical or subtropical storm shortly before, during, or after landfall. Steering winds suggest it may follow the mid-Atlantic coast or even hook left over eastern Virginia or the Delmarva Peninsula.

Inland Will See Soaking Rains, Too

A tropical wind and rainstorm will bring drenching downpours and strong gusts along the Atlantic coast from North Carolina to New Jersey, southeastern New York, and southern New England late this week and into the weekend. Tropical-storm-force gusts of 40-60 mph are expected from eastern North Carolina to southern New England, with the potential for hurricane-force gusts up to 75 mph along the mid-Atlantic coast.

These strong winds may cause power outages and block roads with high water, fallen trees, and debris. Coastal areas could experience moderate to major flooding, especially in southeastern Virginia, where heavy rain combines with storm surge.

Conditions will wane quickly along the mid-Atlantic coast as the storm strengthens, with dangerous seas and rough surf causing beach erosion and strong rip currents. Major cities like Richmond, Washington DC, Baltimore, Philadelphia, New York City, and Boston will see drenching rain, likely leading to travel disruptions and urban and coastal flooding.

The AccuWeather RealFeel® Temperatures will drop into the 50s, fitting for the first days of autumn. The extent of rain to the west depends on the storm's track, with the potential for lingering heavy rain if the storm's forward speed slows down on a more inland path.