Heat Deaths Seen To Rise As Global Temperature Increases; Experts call For Decrease In Emissions

Deaths related to heat waves are seen to increase due to the continued rise of global temperatures.

Experts said the extreme heat waves could affect hundreds of millions of people who are unused to such conditions.

Due to this, a recent study said that heat deaths could rise quickly unless serious measures to prepare populations have been undertaken to prevent the phenomenon.

Findings of the study

Researchers took note that should a non-compensable heat extreme occur in a region where the local population is unprepared and not sufficiently acclimatized, the number of excess deaths that result from this phenomenon could markedly exceed the impacts of past local extremes.

To further understand and explain to the public where and when these non-compensable conditions could occur, experts have conducted an extreme value analysis of both weather-station observations and bias-corrected and downscaled projections from CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6), which is the latest ensemble of climate models.

Experts explained that the the human body cools itself by producing sweat, which later evaporates and takes heat away. However, when humidity is high, evaporation is reduced.

The study used a limit based on experiments on people showing that when combined heat and humidity passes 31.5C, the body is no longer able to cool itself.

This is the non-compensable heat stress threshold that they have been referring to.

They stressed that sweating could not compensate for the extreme conditions.

Researches further demonstrated that the geographic range and frequency of non-compensable heat extremes will increase rapidly, given only moderate continued increase in global average temperatures. This implies that, in the near future, a substantial portion of the world's population will be exposed to these non-compensable environmental conditions.

"There is a real risk of hundreds of millions of people being exposed to non-compensable heat as part of an extreme event before they are sufficiently physiologically and behaviorally heat-adapted to avoid attendant increases in mortality and morbidity," the study indicated.

Experts pointed out that the climate change has been driving the emergence of extreme events far outside of the range of historical experience across the world.

They disclosed that in most locations, behavioral adaptation has been tailored to historical experience and physiological heat adaptation is a process that requires weeks of exposure to elevated temperatures.

Researchers noted that the east coast and midwest regions of the US and central Europe, including Germany, are among the areas in the world that would experience the arrival of unprecedented heat stress conditions.

Meanwhile, when it comes to places that are already hot such as Arizona, Texas and parts of California, periods of extreme heat stress would become annual events at 2C.

To address this, experts have called for a reduction on the emissions.

Heat waves

The World Health Organization said that heat waves are among the most dangerous of natural hazards, but this rarely receive adequate attention because their death tolls and destruction are not always evident.

Data from the WHO indicated that from 1998 to 2017, more than 166,000 people died due to heatwaves, including more than 70,000 who died during the 2003 heatwave in Europe.

The WHO said that population exposure to heat has been increasing due to climate change.

Meanwhile, between 2000 and 2016, the number of people exposed to heatwaves increased by around 125 million.

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