Climate Change Might Increase Conflict Deaths By 8.5% In 2060

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Climate change is seen to contribute in the increase of conflict deaths in the years to come.

According to the International Monetary Fund, conflict deaths could rise by 8.5 percent by 2060.

Graver threats in fragile states

For one, climate change poses grave threats to countries across Africa, especially those considered as fragile and conflict-affected states.

According to the research, fragile states, including those from the Central African Republic to Somalia to Sudan, suffer more from weather events such as floods, droughts, storms and other climate-related shocks than any other countries.

This despite the fact that these areas only contributed the least to climate change. Experts observed that on a yearly basis, it is three times that more people are affected by natural disasters in fragile states than in other countries.

They said that disasters in these fragile states often displace more than twice the share of the population in other nations.

The IMF found out that climate change could indeed inflict "more lasting macroeconomic costs" in fragile countries. Experts explained that cumulative losses in gross domestic product reach about 4 percent in fragile states three years after they encounter extreme weather events.

"That compares with around 1 percent in other countries. Droughts in fragile states are expected to cut about 0.2 percentage points from their per-capita GDP growth every year. This means that incomes in fragile states will be falling further behind those in other countries," according to the IMF.

Moreover, climate shocks are also seen to worsen underlying fragilities, such as conflict and hunger. Late on, this usually exacerbates the effect that they have on the economy as well as in the people's wellbeing.

"Our estimates indicate that in a high emissions scenario, and all else equal, deaths from conflict as a share of the population could increase by close to 10 percent in fragile countries by 2060," the IMF said.

It further said that climate change would push an additional 50 million people in fragile states into hunger by the year 2060.

The IMF pointed out that the more harmful effects of climate events in fragile states were not dependent on their geographical location in hotter parts of the planet. Experts said that these were also because of conflict and the dependence on rainfed agriculture and lower capacity to manage risks.

According to the IMF, the occurrence of conflict usually undermines the capacity of fragile states to manage climate risks.

One example that was given was the situation in Somalia in which the areas most severely affected by food insecurity and hunger due to the prolonged drought in 2021-22 were under the control of terrorist groups that impede the delivery of humanitarian assistance.

Addressing the situation

A summit in Nairobi, which will take place from September 4 to 6, aims to address the urgent climate challenges facing the continent of 1.4 billion people.

This comes ahead of the next round of UN climate talks that will be held in the United Arab Emirates in November and December.

African governments have been demanding that the nations, considered as, top polluters, pay for the harm their emissions have caused in the continent.

The IMF also pointed out that critical interventions should include policies to facilitate immediate response to climate shocks.