With less than 2 degrees Celsius of global warming above pre-industrial levels, European ski resorts were forecast to be at very high risk of a lack of snow supply.
In a new study published in Nature Climate Change, experts examine the effects of warming on 2,234 ski resorts in 28 European nations, as well as the climate and water footprints of their future snowmaking requirements.
The study evaluated variations in snow cover as temperatures rose: 53% of European ski resorts would suffer a "very high risk of insufficient snow" if temperatures rose by 2 degrees Celsius. If the 4-degree mark is breached, nearly 98% will be at risk.
Ski tourism
The researchers also looked at the impact of ski tourism on the environment and discovered that artificial snowmaking generated 2% of total emissions.
The main sources of emissions were tourist flights to resorts and lodging.
With over a million-day visitors every year, Europe's $30 billion ski sector hosts 80% of the world's resorts. The previous ski season was a disaster, with record-breaking warm winter weather closing ski slopes from Chamonix, France, to Innsbruck, Austria.
"Ski tourism is a niche issue in the face of climate change, but from the point of view of the people who live in the mountains and make a living from the industry, it is very important to really understand to what extent climate change is threatening the activity, and to take into account the impact this activity has on the climate," Dr. Samuel Morin, research scientist at Météo-France and CNRS in Toulouse and Grenoble, said in an interview.
Snow condition
Snow conditions deteriorate more or less in proportion to the degree of warming, but the potential influence on snow reliability at different ski resorts varies widely from mountain range to mountain range and within each mountain range.
Snowmaking can significantly reduce this impact. If a resort installs snowmaking on half of its pistes, the comparable impact is 27% and 71%.
However, this would be accompanied by an increase in demand for water and electricity for snow production, raising ski resort operating costs and the carbon footprint.
Furthermore, equipping half of a resort with snowmaking capability does not always imply significantly enhanced snow conditions in a warmer environment. Increasing water and energy consumption also contradicts efforts to lessen tourism's environmental impact.
Artificial snowmaking in several locations in the Alps, Nordic countries, and Turkey could compensate for the snow shortage. However, snowmaking is unlikely to aid resorts in the United Kingdom and southern Europe, where it is typically too warm to make snow in the first place, and the snow that can be generated melts soon.
"Overall, it looks like European skiers will be able to continue skiing, but the activity will migrate further north and higher up the mountains, even with additional investment in snowmaking," said Ruth Mottram, a climate scientist at the Danish Meteorological Institute.
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