The Grand Canyon is one of the most visited national parks in the U.S., attracting millions of tourists every year.
However, the park is also known for its extreme heat, especially at the bottom of the canyon, where temperatures can reach up to 60°C (140°F) in the summer.
Such heat can pose serious health risks for visitors, such as heat cramps, heat exhaustion, heat stroke, and even death.
According to a new study by researchers from the National Park Service and the University of Pennsylvania, these risks are likely to increase in the future as the region warms due to climate change.
How climate change will affect heat-related illness risk at the Grand Canyon
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The study, published in PLOS ONE, used data from 2004 to 2009 to establish a baseline of heat-related illness risk at the Grand Canyon.
The researchers analyzed the number of reported cases of heat illness among visitors, as well as the temperature and humidity data at the park.
They found that the rate of heat illness per 100,000 visitors was 0.9 in May, 2.6 in June, 4.4 in July, 3.5 in August, 1.5 in September, and 0.3 in October.
The researchers then used climate projection models to predict heat-related illness risk under different climate scenarios.
The study projects the rate of heat-related illness at the park will increase by up to 137%, resulting in up to 254 heat-related illnesses annually during peak visitation season.
The researchers considered two scenarios: one where global greenhouse gas emissions are moderately reduced, leading to a 3°C increase in global average temperature by 2100; and another where emissions continue to rise at the current rate, leading to a 5°C increase in global average temperature by 2100.
The study found that under both scenarios, the number of days with a high heat index (a measure of how hot it feels when humidity is factored in) would increase significantly at the Grand Canyon.
For example, under the high-emission scenario, the number of days with a heat index above 38°C (100°F) would increase from 18 days per year in 2004-2009 to 68 days per year in 2070-2099.
Similarly, the number of days with a heat index above 43°C (110°F) would increase from two days per year in 2004-2009 to 23 days per year in 2070-2099.
Furthermore, the study found that under both scenarios, the risk of heat illness would vary by location within the park.
The risk would be highest at Phantom Ranch, which is located at the bottom of the canyon and has the highest temperatures and humidity levels.
The risk would be lowest at Desert View, which is located on the eastern rim of the canyon and has the lowest temperatures and humidity levels.
How to prevent and treat heat-related illness at the Grand Canyon
The study warned that unless preventive measures are taken, more visitors to the Grand Canyon will suffer from heat-related illness in the future due to climate change.
The researchers recommended that visitors should be aware of the signs and symptoms of heat illness, such as dizziness, nausea, vomiting, headache, muscle cramps, weakness, confusion, and loss of consciousness.
They also advised that visitors should drink plenty of water, avoid alcohol and caffeine, wear light-colored and loose-fitting clothing, use sunscreen and hats, seek shade and rest frequently, and avoid hiking during the hottest part of the day.
Moreover, park managers should implement strategies to reduce heat exposure and enhance emergency response for visitors.
These could include providing more water stations, cooling shelters, shade structures, signage, education materials, and warning systems; increasing staff training and equipment; and limiting access or imposing quotas for certain trails or areas during extreme heat events.
The study concluded that climate change will pose a significant challenge to managing visitor safety and health at the Grand Canyon.
However, by understanding the projected changes in heat-related illness risk and taking appropriate actions to mitigate them, park managers and visitors can work together to ensure a safe and enjoyable experience at this iconic natural wonder.
