Climate change is not only a threat to the environment but also to the economy.
A new study by researchers from the University of Utah, Boston University, and Swansea University in Wales has estimated the value of U.S. property at risk from increased wildfire and tree mortality due to climate change.
The impact of climate change on forests and fires
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Forests are vital ecosystems that provide many benefits to humans, such as clean air, water, recreation, and biodiversity.
However, forests are also vulnerable to climate change, which can affect their health and productivity.
Climate change can alter the temperature, precipitation, and seasonality of forests, making them more susceptible to drought, pests, diseases, and invasive species.
These factors can reduce the growth and survival of trees, leading to widespread tree mortality.
Tree mortality can have cascading effects on the risk and severity of wildfires. Dead trees provide more fuel for fires, making them more intense and difficult to control.
Moreover, climate change can also increase the frequency and duration of fire weather conditions, such as high temperatures, low humidity, and strong winds.
These conditions can create more opportunities for fires to ignite and spread across landscapes. As a result, wildfires can become more frequent, larger, and more destructive in the future.
Wildfires can have devastating impacts on human lives and properties. They can destroy homes, businesses, infrastructure, and cultural heritage sites.
They can also cause health problems, such as respiratory illnesses, injuries, and mental stress. In addition, wildfires can reduce the aesthetic and recreational value of forests, making them less attractive for living or visiting.
All these impacts can affect the market value of properties located in or near forested areas. Property value is determined by many factors, such as location, size, quality, amenities, and demand.
However, one of the most important factors is risk: how likely is it that a property will suffer damage or loss from a natural hazard? The higher the risk, the lower the value.
The study, led by biology professor William Anderegg, quantified the value of the property at risk from wildfire and tree mortality in the U.S. using historical data and future projections.
They found that about 1.1 million households (or $4 billion worth of property) were exposed to a 5% or greater chance of being impacted by a wildfire over a 30-year mortgage period between 2000 and 2018.
However, this number is expected to increase significantly in the future due to climate change.
By 2050, about 3.3 million households (or $11 billion worth of property) will face the same level of risk each year.
By 2100, this number could range from 5.5 million households (or $22 billion worth of property) under a moderate climate action scenario to 11 million households (or $45 billion worth of property) under a high-emissions scenario.
The study also identified the regions that will experience the most exposure to wildfire risk in the future.
They found that the western U.S., especially California, Oregon, Washington, Idaho, Montana, Colorado, Arizona, and New Mexico, will remain the hotspots of wildfire risk throughout the century.
However, some regions that currently have low or moderate risk levels will also see an increase in exposure in the future.
These include parts of the southeast (such as Florida and Georgia), the Great Lakes region (such as Michigan and Wisconsin), and New England (such as Maine and Vermont).
The need for climate action and adaptation
The study highlights the urgent need for climate action and adaptation to reduce the impact of wildfires on property values in the U.S.
Climate action refers to the efforts to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions that cause global warming and its associated effects on forests and fires, while climate adaptation refers to the efforts to cope with or adjust to the changing conditions and risks posed by climate change.
The study showed that taking aggressive climate action can significantly lower the exposure of property to wildfire risk in the future.
For example, if global warming is limited to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels by 2100 (as recommended by the Paris Agreement), then only about 5% more property will be exposed to wildfire risk compared to the present.
However, if global warming reaches 4°C or more by 2100 (as projected under a high-emissions scenario), then about 250% more property will be exposed to wildfire risk compared to the present.
Climate adaptation can also help reduce vulnerability and enhance the resilience of property to wildfire risk.
Some examples of adaptation measures include creating defensible space around buildings, using fire-resistant materials and designs, implementing fuel management and prescribed burning, improving fire detection and suppression, enhancing insurance and financial mechanisms, and promoting community awareness and preparedness.
Furthermore, the study by Anderegg provides a valuable contribution to the understanding of the economic impacts of climate change on property values in the U.S.
It also provides a useful tool for decision-makers, stakeholders, and homeowners to assess and manage the risks and opportunities associated with wildfire and tree mortality in a changing climate.
By taking climate action and adaptation seriously, we can protect our forests, our properties, and our future.
