Earth’s Climate May Be Undergoing a ‘Termination-Level Transition’ as Methane Rises

Methane is a powerful greenhouse gas that traps heat in the atmosphere and contributes to global warming.

Unlike carbon dioxide, which stays in the air for centuries, methane has a shorter lifespan of about a decade. However, in that time, it can have a much stronger warming effect than carbon dioxide.

The gas comes from both natural and human sources. Some of the natural sources include wetlands, where decomposing plants release methane, and permafrost, where frozen organic matter thaws and emits methane.

Some of the human sources include fossil fuel production, agriculture, landfills, and waste.

Since 2006, the amount of methane in the atmosphere has been rising rapidly, and the rate of increase has accelerated in recent years.

This is alarming, because it could indicate that Earth's climate is undergoing a major shift, similar to what happened in the past when abrupt changes in methane levels coincided with transitions from cold ice ages to warm interglacial periods.

What is driving the rise in methane?

(Photo : YASIN AKGUL/AFP via Getty Images)

There are several factors that could be influencing the rise in methane emissions.

One of them is natural variability, such as the El Niño phenomenon, which affects rainfall patterns and temperatures around the world. El Niño events tend to increase wetland emissions of methane, especially in tropical regions.

Another factor is human activity, such as expanding agriculture, increasing fossil fuel use, and growing population.

These activities create more sources of methane, such as rice paddies, livestock, gas flaring, and landfills. They also reduce the sinks of methane, such as forests and soils that absorb methane from the air.

A third factor is climate change itself, which creates a feedback loop between methane and temperature. As the planet warms up, more methane is released from natural sources, such as wetlands and permafrost.

This in turn adds more heat to the atmosphere, which melts more permafrost and expands more wetlands. This cycle could potentially trigger a runaway effect that would make it harder to limit global warming.

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What are the implications of rising methane for Earth's climate?

The implications of rising methane for Earth's climate are serious and potentially irreversible. Methane is responsible for about 20% of the human-induced warming since pre-industrial times.

If methane emissions continue to increase at the current rate, they could add up to 0.5°C of warming by 21002.

This would make it more difficult to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement, which aims to limit global temperature rise to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels by 2100.

It would also increase the risks of tipping points in the Earth system, such as the collapse of ice sheets, the dieback of forests, and the release of more greenhouse gases from natural reservoirs.

Rising methane could also have significant impacts on human health, food security, biodiversity, and water availability.

Methane contributes to air pollution by forming ozone, which can cause respiratory problems and crop damage.

Methane also affects the hydrological cycle by reducing stratospheric water vapor, which influences cloud formation and precipitation patterns.

To prevent these negative outcomes, it is essential to reduce methane emissions from both natural and human sources.

This would require a combination of technological innovations, policy interventions, behavioral changes, and international cooperation.

Reducing methane emissions would not only benefit the climate but also improve air quality, enhance food production, and save money.

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