Active Hurricane Season Likely To Happen Amid High Ocean Temperatures, Experts Warn

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Experts warned that the record-high temperature in the oceans could contribute to an uptick in hurricane activities.

According to scientists at the Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be above normal given the record-warm sea surface temperatures.

Updated hurricane outlook

The NOAA weather forecasters explained that the present ocean and atmospheric conditions, such as the record-warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures, would most likely result in a counterbalance on the usual limiting atmospheric conditions, which are associated with the El Nino phenomenon that is being observed.

They warned of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season of 60 percent, a significant increase from the outlook issued in May, which had predicted a 30 percent chance.

"The likelihood of near-normal activity has decreased to 25%, down from the 40% chances outlined in May's outlook. This new update gives the Atlantic a 15% chance of seeing a below-normal season," the NOAA forecasters said in a news release.

The agency's update to the 2023 outlook indicated that there could possibly be 14 to 21 named storms (winds of 39 mph or greater). Of this range, around six to 11 could transform into hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater).

Meanwhile, from those estimated number of hurricanes, two to five could become major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or greater).

The Climate Prediction Center had made this assessment and prediction with 70% confidence. The outlook covers the entire six-month hurricane season that is expected to end on November 30, 2023.

Experts noted that the updated ranges probably include storms that have already formed this season.

They pointed out that the Atlantic basin has already experienced an active beginning to the hurricane season as they were five storms that have reached at least tropical storm strength, including one hurricane.

Records have shown that in an average, at least14 named storms are being produced during hurricane season. Of this total number, seven usually became hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.

Climate factors

According to lead hurricane season forecaster Matthew Rosencrans, the primary climate factors that are seen to influence the 2023 Atlantic hurricane activity were the ongoing El Nino phenomenon as well as the warm phase of the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation.

Based on the latest El Niño Southern Oscillation Diagnostic Discussion, it is 95 percent that the El Nino conditions that are currently being observed would continue towards the Northern Hemisphere winter.

The El Niño phenomenon is characterized by the abnormal warming of sea surface temperature in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean and below normal rainfall.

Meanwhile, a below-normal wind shear forecast, which is slightly below-normal Atlantic trade winds and a near- or above-normal West African Monsoon, could also be considered as key factors in predicting the hurricane season.

Due to these factors, Rosencrans advised the public to be ready and take preacautionary measures for the continuing season.

Other scientists from the NOAA also called on those living in vulnerable areas to have a well-thought-out hurricane plan and stay informed and vigilant about the weather through official channels as the season progresses.