Solar Maximum Is Peaking Sooner Than Expected, Study Says

Scientists predicted that as the sun grows increasingly active, its peak could occur sooner than expected.

According to recent research reported by CNN, the sun may reach the peak of its current activity cycle in 2024. This is one year earlier than the expected projections.

The sun experiences phases of low and high solar activity every 11 years or so, which is associated with the number of sunspots on its surface.

These dark regions, some of which can reach the size of Earth or larger, are driven by the sun's strong and constantly shifting magnetic fields.

Sun's activity

Experts observed that the current solar cycle, Solar Cycle 25, has been full of activity.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center in Boulder, Colorado, has already recorded more sunspots than were recorded during the preceding cycle's peak.

"This solar maximum is the space weather equivalent of hurricane season. It's when we see the biggest storms. But unlike hurricane season, which lasts a few months, solar maximum lasts a few years," said Mark Miesch, research scientist at the Space Weather Prediction Center.

However, other experts said that the increase in activity is not unexpected and will continue as the solar maximum approaches.

Dr. Alex Young, associate director for science within NASA's Heliophysics Science Division at the Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, explained that it is absolutely normal.

"What we're seeing is overall completely expected. As you get closer to solar maximum, you see more sunspots appear in clumps. Those clumps will sometimes be bigger and last longer," he added.

The Space reported that since Cycle 25 picked up momentum in 2022, it has been progressively outperforming official predictions in line with an alternate prognosis given by a team led by NASA research scientist Robert Leamon and Scott McIntosh, the deputy director at U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).

In their research, Leamon and McIntosh investigate alternate methods of predicting the sun's behavior based on the star's magnetic activity.

They discovered that the strength of every subsequent cycle is determined by the moment when the magnetic field of the preceding cycle entirely dies.

This occurrence, dubbed "the terminator", occurs up to two years later, when the next solar cycle is slowly waking up.

"If you measure how long a cycle is, not the minimum to minimum, but from terminator to terminator, you see that there is a strong linear relationship between how long one cycle is and how strong the next one is going to be," said Leamon.

Extreme phenomenon

The increase in solar activity leads to a period of frequent aurora displays, known as the northern and southern lights.

Auroras are produced by interactions between material flowing from the sun and the Earth's magnetic field. Similar reactions that produce these breathtaking natural light displays.

The CNN reported sightings of auroras in places where they are rarely seen, including New Mexico, Missouri, North Carolina, and California in the United States, and the southeast of England and other parts of the United Kingdom.

The same magnetic field can also cause trouble on Earth's orbit as it thickens the residual atmosphere at high altitudes where satellites transit. This causes higher drag, which can cause satellites to tumble out of orbit, among other issues.

SpaceX lost a batch of 40 brand new Starlink satellites in February 2022 after flying them into what analysts thought was simply a minor solar storm.

Leamon further noted that we might be able to expect the "most effective events" in 2025 to 2026.