Potential Tropical Storm Bringing Hazardous Weather by Mid-June 2023 Slowly Forming in Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico

Experts are keeping an eye on a potential tropical storm that may form in the Caribbean and Mexican Gulf by mid-June and deliver hazardous weather.

After Tropical Storm Arlene made a brief appearance in the Gulf of Mexico last week, the tropical Atlantic is relatively tranquil. Although no tropical storms are anticipated in the upcoming days, AccuWeather meteorologists are monitoring a sizable region of heavy rain in the Caribbean. They are also keeping an eye on the potential for enhanced activity later this month in the western Caribbean and Gulf.

Because tropical storms are far more likely to form between North America and Central America at this time of year, forecasters pay particular attention to the tropical Atlantic area in June. This is because other areas of the basin's strong winds inhibit the creation of tropical storms. Instead, early-season storms typically originate close to huge, weak circulations known as gyres, non-tropical low-pressure zones, or ancient, stalled fronts.

NOAA explains that a gyre is a massive system of circulating ocean currents, which include eddies, whirlpools, deep currents, as well as named currents like the Gulf Stream. These ocean currents are produced by wind, tides, temperature, and salinity. The systems of currents known as gyres are made up of these bigger and more persistent currents when they are all combined.

Possible Flash Flood: Cuba, Central Bahamas

Recently, there have been difficulties in the western Caribbean and close to Bermuda due to heavy rain and thunderstorms. For roughly a week, there will be varying intensities of this severe weather. Up to mid-June, 6 to 12 inches of rain might fall in certain areas of Cuba through the central Bahamas. Although the rain may assist with the dry weather, it can also stop outdoor activities and cause small-scale flooding. Wind gusts from thunderstorms may make boating and fishing hazardous.

There is a little possibility that tropical development may take place in this area over the upcoming week. However, it is less possible because of the significant wind shear. Strong wind shear has the potential to stop the development of tropical storms or weaken those that are already present.

Central American Gyre

The Central America Gyre, a sizable region of weak rotation in the atmosphere, is anticipated to form around the middle of June, according to AccuWeather. It is common for this gyre to occur throughout the western Caribbean and the eastern Pacific, and it can cause more thunderstorms to develop close to Central America. The possibility for the formation of early-season tropical storms is made possible by the enhancement of thunderstorms and high ocean temperatures.

A smaller low-pressure region may develop in the western Caribbean, travel into the Gulf of Mexico, and intensify during the third or final week of June, according to some long-range projections. However, it's feasible that the system won't evolve as quickly as predicted.

During the third week of June, a tropical disturbance known as a tropical wave will sweep westward over the Atlantic, according to AccuWeather. Later in the month, in the Caribbean, this disturbance might perhaps form a more organized tropical system.

AccuWeather claims that the water temperatures in the southern Gulf of Mexico and the western Caribbean are particularly favorable for the development of tropical storms.

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Potential Tropical Storm Bret

The lowest temperature needed for tropical development is in the upper 70s Fahrenheit. With readings in the mid-80s Fahrenheit, the water in the northwest Caribbean alongside the southern Gulf of Mexico is now quite warm.

Whether or not this region of the Atlantic has high wind shear relaxation will determine whether or not tropical development occurs later in June, says AccuWeather. According to data, wind shear over the Gulf may lessen during the third week of June. However, later this month, the United States may see tropical concerns if wind shear decreases.

In the Atlantic, the following named storm is Bret, according to the Old Farmer's Almanac.

Tropical development brought on by the Central America gyre can occasionally occur in the eastern Pacific rather than the Caribbean or Gulf. Along with the slim probability of development later this month in the eastern Pacific as well as Atlantic basins, this is also a possibility.

There haven't been any tropical systems tracked in the eastern Pacific yet in 2023, AccuWeather reports.

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