Cyclone Freddy Endangers Madagascar and Mozambique Early This Week

Cyclone Freddy, which was upgraded to a Very Intense Tropical Cyclone on February 19, is expected to make landfall in Madagascar this week and has already killed at least one person.

Cheneso, the most recent tropical cyclone to hit the country, killed dozens of people.

Freddy is expected to cause significantly more havoc.

Winds are expected to reach 140 mph, putting it comfortably within the category 4 cyclone intensity, or Very Intense Tropical Cyclone status.

Madagascar braces for cyclone Freddy

(Photo : LAURA MOROSOLI/AFP via Getty Images)

Despite forecasts of a slight decrease in intensity over the next few days, by the time Freddy makes landfall in Madagascar, gusts are expected to be around 100 mph, putting it in the category of a category 2 cyclone.

With damaging winds and 100 to 200mm of rain possible, there is also a high risk of deadly landslides.

Freddy has traveled across the Indian Ocean for several weeks, becoming a category 1 cyclone on February 6, just south of Indonesia.

Over the next 14 days, it traveled nearly 4,000 miles across the ocean to where it is now, about 1,000 miles off the east coast of Madagascar, as per The Guardian.

Only Eline and Hudah, both in 2000, are known to have crossed the Indian Ocean.

Even though Freddy appears to be a significantly long-lasting cyclone that has traveled the length of an ocean, it is a long way from the farthest traveled and longest-lasting.

Hurricane John, also known as Typhoon John, tracked over 7,000 miles in 31 days in 1994.

The hurricane began in the eastern Pacific and moved so far west that it was classified as a typhoon due to its presence in both the east and west basins of the Pacific Ocean.

Once Freddy makes landfall, its interaction with the elevation of the land and the lack of a moisture source will cause it to weaken quickly, with winds reducing to around 50mph by the time the cyclone clears Madagascar's western coast.

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Freddy has been intense for days

As of Monday evening, Cyclone Freddy was the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane (U.S. time).

Over the weekend, it reached Category 5 strength, as per The Weather Channel.

Freddy's circulation may continue westward after hitting Madagascar, possibly reaching Mozambique late this week, though the extent of Freddy's circulation is unknown.

Torrential rain, flash flooding, and dangerous landslides in hilly or mountainous terrain are a risk in Madagascar and parts of southern Africa, regardless of Freddy's wind strength.

Damaging winds and storm surge flooding are also major concerns, particularly as Freddy moves into eastern Madagascar.

This comes less than a month after Cyclone Cheneso wreaked havoc on Madagascar, killing at least 33 people.

On February 6, Freddy formed off the coast of southern Indonesia. Only one cyclone in the southern Indian Ocean that reached Category 1 intensity was tracked from near Indonesia to Madagascar, according to NOAA's best track database.

Cyclone Eline/Leon struck in February 2000.

This cyclone made landfall in Madagascar as a Category 1 storm, then quickly intensified to Category 4 strength before making landfall in central Mozambique.

It continued into Zimbabwe before splitting into northern Botswana and Namibia, forming an unusually long inland track across southern Africa.

In February 2000, the combination of this storm and a tropical depression earlier in the month caused devastating flooding in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, and South Africa.