The warmer-than-average winter in Europe this year helped to avoid a gas crisis, but the outlook for the coming winter is uncertain as instabilities persist.
A single port in Qatar accounts for more than 20% of global liquefied natural gas exports.
A new paper published in Nature Sustainability by a team of researchers from the University of Louvain, the University of Southern California (USC) Viterbi School of Engineering, and the Qatar Environment and Energy Research Institute pinpoints the location of a "high vulnerability zone," where an oil spill could cause liquified natural gas export facilities and desalination plants along the coast to be completely shut down for several days.
Single Oil Spill Can Disrupt The Global Energy Supply
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Tankers cannot navigate through thick oil slicks in the presence of an oil spill.
Furthermore, desalination plants, which rely on seawater intake, cannot operate normally in a heavily polluted water source, as per ScienceDaily.
According to the researchers, the shutdown could cause significant disruptions in global gas supply as well as an unprecedented water shortage for residents of the Qatari Peninsula, while also jeopardizing containment efforts.
Being aware of such a vulnerability is critical, researchers said.
Qatar's export capacity is expected to grow by 64% over the next five years.
As a result, this key port will continue to be a critical node in the global energy supply chain.
The researchers also express concern about the growing number of tanker accidents in the Gulf, particularly how such accidents may impact critical coastal infrastructures that export a vital source of energy for the planet and ensure the safety of desalinated water for one of the world's most arid climates.
The paper employed advanced numerical modeling to correlate maritime data transports, atmospheric circulation, ocean currents, waves, and seafloor topographic map data collected over a five-year period to identify specific, offshore areas of the Qatar Peninsula vulnerable to oil spills and assess potential disruptions to the global supply of liquid natural gas.
According to the study, tankers passing through this area pose the greatest risk of oil spills, rather than the numerous oil rigs in the northern part of the Peninsula.
If there is an oil spill in this area, the researchers believed Qatar will only have a few days to contain the spill before it reaches the country's main liquefied gas export facility and main desalination plant.
Furthermore, according to the authors, these events could cause disruptions or even a complete shutdown of desalination plants for the day, forcing the country to rely on its limited freshwater supply and driving up liquefied natural gas prices.
To put the magnitude of the problem into perspective, experts believed that the largest liquid natural gas tankers from Qatar have enough energy to heat London for one week.
The study advocates for increased remote sensing in the Gulf's most vulnerable areas, using satellite and airborne images to provide early warning of spills and better model their evolution.
As per the researchers, the aforementioned actions are critical in guiding mitigation efforts to avoid negative consequences both locally and globally.
Booms can be used to contain or divert spilled oil, which can then be recovered using skimmers or burned off if the weather permits, as per Oil Spill Prevention.
However, if the winds or waves are too high, the booms will be ineffective and will not provide adequate spill containment.
Dispersants can be effective in breaking up light- or medium-density oil spills when applied via aircraft.
The use of dispersants is also weather dependent, as high winds make it difficult to accurately target the spill from the air.
Sorbents can be used to clean up small spills or as a final "polish" after other response options have been exhausted.
Dispersants are chemical agents (similar to soaps and detergents) that aid in the breakdown of an oil slick into extremely minute droplets that disperse throughout the water.
While this does not eliminate the spilled material, smaller oil particles biodegrade more quickly and provide some protection for fragile ecosystems threatened by a surface slick.
