Extreme Weather and Tornado Risk to Return to the Southern Parts of US

From Wednesday night through Thursday night, the southern United States will see a fresh wave of severe thunderstorms, some of which have the potential to produce tornadoes, according to AccuWeather meteorologists.

Some of the same cities and towns severely impacted by destructive and fatal severe weather only one week earlier are in danger from this week's storms.

Extreme Weather Events

At least 300 severe weather episodes, including more than 30 verified tornadoes, were caused by extreme weather that began erupting last Wednesday and peaked on Thursday. The storms claimed the lives of nine individuals.

In terms of tornado activity, the first 16 days of January 2023 have been highly active. On Monday, there were two more early reports of tornadoes from Iowa.

According to an average of 39 tornado reports every month, there have already been 119 reports of tornadoes in January, according to AccuWeather Long-Range Meteorologist Brandon Buckingham. As the National Weather Service storm survey personnel continue their formal investigation, the precise number of verified tornadoes is subject to vary.

Storms will likely get an additional lift from a developing warm air surge compared to what would generally happen in the winter. Meanwhile, it's expected that the storm system's jet stream will be powerful enough to sustain several severe thunderstorms that may bring hail, tornadoes, flash floods, and significant wind gusts.

Weather Forecast

The time frame from Wednesday till Wednesday night is probably the stronger of the two days this week regarding the two severe weather danger days with this scenario. With the outbreak from last week, Thursday was by far the busier of the two days.

Some severe thunderstorms may linger throughout Wednesday night as they travel farther east and northeast across Mississippi, western Tennessee, and west Alabama.

From northern Louisiana to southern Ohio, there will be a danger of urban and small stream flash flooding on Wednesday and Wednesday nights, in addition to the possibility of severe storms. River flooding is not likely since water levels on the secondary rivers in the area have drastically decreased since last week. No flooding is anticipated on the Ohio and Mississippi rivers because water levels are still rising after reaching record low levels this past summer and because they were already dropping after the rain earlier this month.

Destructive Pattern

Some regions still healing from the destructive and fatal tornadoes from last week may be in danger of severe thunderstorms on Thursday.

According to AccuWeather's Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok, "a weakening La Niña pattern, which has been happening this month, plus with certain other elements over the Northern Pacific Ocean, have contributed to an upswing in the frequency of storms and storm severity in California."

However, although there is a link between an increase in severe weather in the Southern states and a weaker La Niña in the spring, there is no link in particular for the winter season.

What's To Come

Since the disruptive Arctic air outbreak around Christmas, the recent California storms usually have diminished by the time they reach the Plains. Still, thunderstorms have seen an increase in strength due to unusually persistent warmth east of the Rockies.

A powerful jet stream that transported the potential for severe weather over the southern United States may have been aided by a significant sea surface temperature differential in the Pacific Ocean.

While the storms dumping feet of mountain snow and torrential rain on California are anticipated to take a lengthy break, the southern part of the jet stream branch is expected to remain active. It will likely bring additional rounds of severe weather to the Southern states in the coming weeks.

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