According to Met Office data, the UK would need a near-record cold December to avoid 2022 being the warmest year on record.
The announcement comes as preliminary Met Office data show that Autumn 2022 (September, October, and November) was the third warmest on record for the UK, with an average mean temperature of 11.1C, trailing only 2011 and 2006's Autumn figures in a series dating back to 1884.
Mild autumn keeps 2022 on track
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Furthermore, November extends 2022's streak of every month being warmer than average, with the first 11 months of the year being the warmest on record for the UK.
According to Mike Kendon of the National Climate Information Centre, "While it's too early to guarantee that 2022 will be the UK's warmest year, the first 11 months have set up the distinct possibility of a record-breaking warm year, with only a very cold December able to potentially influence where the year will eventually sit in the record books."
Autumn's mean temperature is on track to be the third warmest on record in the United Kingdom.
That warmth was felt across the UK, with mean temperatures in England, Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland all ranking among the top five on record.
November has continued the mild theme for the season, with a southwesterly airflow helping to keep temperatures above average for much of the month, fueled by a mild September and the seventh warmest October on record.
For many, the season's rainfall was also well above average. The UK received 402.5mm of rain, which is 19% more than normal.
Northern Ireland deviated the most from average, receiving nearly a third more rain than would normally be expected, totaling 433.4mm during the season.
Even the south of England, which was in drought at the end of the summer, received 301.9mm of rain, which is 28% more than average.
However, the year has been drier than average, particularly in the south.
According to EA Executive Director for Environment and Business, John Leyland, the exceptionally wet weather this autumn has been beneficial in wetting up soils and improving river flows in some areas.
Dry soils have now been replenished, but groundwater and reservoir recharge has been delayed in some parts of the country.
November came dangerously close to breaking its own records. According to preliminary Met Office data, November 2022 was the third warmest month on record in the United Kingdom, with an average mean temperature of 8.2 degrees Celsius.
Snow, strong winds, and sub-zero temperatures in the UK
According to the Met Office's long-term forecast for December 5-14, heavy rain will fall in the east and south, "perhaps becoming persistent rain at times and possibly wintry over hills."
Elsewhere, cloudy with drier, sunny spells, especially in the northwest, as per Somersetlive.
Showers are expected to continue throughout the week, with the heaviest and most frequent along the eastern coasts, and a chance of longer spells of rain for the southern UK.
Showers could turn wintry over higher ground, with a chance of sleet over lower levels at times.
A cold northerly flow is expected to develop, drawing temperatures below average and making it feel even colder at times, especially in strong winds.
This could bring wintry weather, with an increased risk of overnight frost and possibly snow showers, not just on higher ground.
The Met Office also stated that "confidence is low" for December 16-29, but overall dry weather is more likely than storms, but temperatures will be below average.
Frost and fog are common at this time of year, and the chance of these, as well as below-normal temperatures and spells of wintry precipitation, is slightly higher than usual, according to the Met Office.
Heavy rain and strong winds, on the other hand, are less likely than in a typical December.
Experts have acknowledged that Britain could temporarily revert to the heavy snow showers of the 2010 winter.
