Cautious Experts Monitoring Atlantic Basin for a New Tropical Development After Ian Leaves Florida in Havoc

Meteorologists are keeping an eye on certain areas of the Atlantic basin within which new tropical development may take place in the next week or two in the wake of Ian. The season, according to experts, is far from over; it doesn't officially end until November 30.

Fiona, the first major hurricane of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, made landfall more than four months into the season after wreaking havoc in Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic before striking Atlantic Canada. Fiona was swiftly followed by Ian, who strengthened to a Category 4 hurricane before making landfall in Florida.

After an uncharacteristically quiet start to the season, Ian provided a sobering reminder that it only takes one significant tropical system strike to disrupt livelihoods and cause a significant, deadly disaster.

Meteorologists say there are a few areas worth checking for tropical system developments in the following days in the wake of these catastrophic storms.

High Chances of Tropical System

Dan Pydynowski, a senior meteorologist from AccuWeather, said that looking ahead across the basin, there is currently a strong likelihood that a tropical wave will become an organized tropical system, south of the Cabo Verde Islands

Early on Monday, the tropical wave's associated showers and thunderstorms remained disorganized, but environmental factors are anticipated to favor the development of a tropical depression or even a regular storm from the early parts of the week to the middle.

Pydynowski said that any system that develops in this region of the basin appears to be expected to stay above the eastern Atlantic's open waters.

This week, the forming storm may move closer to the Cabo Verde Islands to increase wind and rainfall, particularly on the westernmost islands, but any effects shouldn't be too significant.

While a disruption enters these waters later this week and into the weekend, experts believe the Caribbean Sea will be yet another area that will be closely watched as it moves further west.

Pydynowski said that by the weekend after this one, there are signs that a wide counterclockwise rotation could try to form in the Caribbean, and this feature may try to encourage development.

Possibly Lower Risk

The likelihood of increasing wind shear in this region by the middle of the month, according to AccuWeather hurricane expert Dan Kottlowski, will be the main barrier to development in the Caribbean Sea. The likelihood of increasing wind shear in this region by the middle of the month, according to AccuWeather hurricane expert Dan Kottlowski, will be the main barrier to the new development in the Caribbean Sea.

Nevertheless, throughout the upcoming week, residents of Central America and the Caribbean are urged to keep abreast of the forecast and follow the most recent developments in the Atlantic basin. Julia and Karl will be the next two storms in the Atlantic to receive names.

Forecasters are closely watching Hurricane Orlene in the East Pacific Ocean, which is set on a course to make landfall on the west coast of Mexico, outside of the Atlantic basin, AccuWeather reports.