NOAA's Space Weather Forecast Center (SWPC) has issued a Geomagnetic Storm Watch for tomorrow, predicting a moderate, potentially disruptive event; the strong geomagnetic storm could also produce atypical Northern Lights or aurora, with the glowing phenomenon in the night sky possible as far south as Pennsylvania, Iowa, and Oregon.
Geomagnetic Storm Watch Issued
NASA/Unsplash
According to the SWPC, minor (G1) geomagnetic storm conditions are expected tonight and on Sunday, October 2; however, moderate storm levels are expected on Saturday, October 1, with G2 storm levels possible. According to the SWPC, the moderate storm levels are most likely due to the positive, as per Weatherboy.
Coronal Hole High-Speed Stream (CH HSS) influences will be felt over the next three days, with possible Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) effects on Saturday.
CMEs are large plasma and magnetic field expulsions from the Sun's corona.
They can eject billions of tons of coronal material and carry an embedded magnetic field that is stronger than the background interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) strength of the solar wind.
CMEs travel at different speeds from the Sun, with some reaching Earth in as little as 15-18 hours and others taking days.
CMEs grow in size as they travel away from the Sun, and larger ones can cover nearly a quarter of the space between Earth and the Sun by the time they reach our planet, according to the SWPC.
As the CME interacts with Earth and its magnetosphere, a variety of events may occur depending on the amount of energy that strikes and the angle at which it strikes the Earth.
When the CME approaches Earth, NOAA's DSCOVR satellite will be among the first to detect real-time changes in the solar wind, and SWPC forecasters will issue any necessary warnings. A G3 storm usually has little effect on our technology.
A G3 storm, on the other hand, has the potential to drive the aurora further away from its normal polar residence, and if other factors align, the aurora could be seen over parts of Pennsylvania, Iowa, and northern Oregon.
The Kp index of the storm determines the likelihood and location of aurora displays. The K-index, and thus the Planetary K-index, are used to quantify the size of geomagnetic storms.
According to the SWPC, Kp is an excellent indicator of disturbances in the Earth's magnetic field and is used by the SWPC to determine whether geomagnetic alerts and warnings are needed for users affected by these disturbances.
Aside from indicating how severe a geomagnetic storm's impact will be, the Kp index can also help predict how low the aurora will be in terms of latitude.
According to the current NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) forecast, the G2 Moderate Geomagnetic Storm event will have a Kp index of 6.
The higher the number, the more vibrant the aurora can be; in the Northern Hemisphere, a higher Kp index also means the aurora could establish itself high above the United States in southern locations where the Northern Lights are not normally seen.
According to the SWPC's current Geomagnetic Storm forecast, the aurora could be visible in clouds free of light and cloud pollution across the Great Lakes, far northern New England, the Upper Midwest, and northern portions of Montana and Washington.
NOAA forecasters examine a variety of solar data from spacecraft to predict the effects of a geomagnetic storm.
Forecasters can predict when the enhanced solar wind from a coronal hole will arrive at Earth by analyzing data from the DSCOVER and ACE satellites.
They look for a few things in the data to determine when the enhanced solar wind will arrive on Earth.
More to follow as Sun erupts with intense activity
The sun continues to erupt with storms, high-speed particles, and coronal mass ejections as it reaches its peak activity in the current solar cycle, according to a report published four weeks ago, as per India Today.
Our solar system's star triggered a geomagnetic storm that hit Earth on Sunday, and more are expected in the coming days.
While the geomagnetic storm began on Saturday with the impact of a solar stream on Earth, minor G-1 class storms are still active, causing auroras and radio blackouts in some areas.
According to Spaceweather.com, which monitors solar activity, more auroras could be triggered in high-latitude areas of the planet.
Geomagnetic storms are major disturbances of the Earth's magnetosphere that occur when energy from the solar wind is exchanged very efficiently into the space environment surrounding Earth.
