Space Debris From Chinese Rocket Will Crash Near Populated Area in the Philippines

The two potential "drop zones" have been identified for space debris from a Chinese rocket that is about to fall back to Earth and these designated drop zones are near populated areas of the Philippines.

The Long March 7A (CZ-7A) rocket, which was launched that day from the Chinese Wenchang Space Launch Center, was the culprit, according to a rocket debris notice from the Philippines Space Agency on September 13.

For the Love of HQ Comms

The Zhongxing-1E satellite, which China claims will offer top-notch communication services such as television as well as data transmission, was the target of the rocket launch.

Rockets are typically built to perform controlled descents after releasing payloads into orbit. This will burn up in the atmosphere over a designated area of Earth, like an unpopulated oceanic island.

The Negligible Risks

However, the risk to people is rising. Scientists estimated in July that in the next ten years there is a 10% chance that one or more people will die as a result of space debris deorbiting and colliding with the ground.

Until now, this risk has been minimal, but as government agencies and numerous companies from the private sector launch more rockets, the likelihood of an accident is rising. Southern latitudes have a particularly high risk.

It is unknown exactly when or where the debris from the 200-foot Long March 7A, which launched the satellite into orbit, will re-enter the atmosphere.

The Philippine Space Agency

According to the Philippine Space Agency, which has been closely monitoring the rocket debris, the space junk may fall as close as 52 kilometers from Santa Ana or as far as 71 kilometers from the Philippine city of Burgos.

While it is unlikely that CZ-7A's debris will fall on land features or populated areas in Philippine territory, the space agency added that falling debris still poses a significant risk to ships, fishing boats, aircraft, and other vessels that will move through the designated crash sites or drop zones.

Two Long Marches From China

China's space activities have previously raised concerns about uncontrolled re-entry into the atmosphere of rocket debris. A Chinese Long March 5B rocket's 22.5-ton core stage touched down in Philippine waters on July 30. Debris was also discovered in Malaysia.

Jonathan McDowell, a Harvard astrophysicist, said on Twitter that There were no reported casualties, but debris did land close to villages, and the outcome might have been different if the space debris had crashed a few hundred meters farther away.

So, CZ-5B recap: signficant debris falls in Kalimantan, Indonesia and Sawarak, Malaysia (both on Borneo). No casualties or property damage reported, but debris is near villages and a few hundred metres either way could have been a different story.
— Jonathan McDowell (@planet4589) August 1, 2022

The problem was that the remnants of the rocket were not directed in a controlled manner back towards Earth, so it was a waiting game to see when and if the space debris would be slowed down enough by atmospheric drag to re-enter the Earth's atmosphere-a process that is difficult to predict in advance.

The fourth mission of that new-generation model was carried out by the Long March 7A rocket on September 13. The said fourth mission was launched by China for the first time in June 2016, Newsweek reports.