The Bureau of Meteorology [BoM] has projected a third consecutive La Nina event for Australia, implying that damp weather would likely extend throughout summer for millions.
La Nina has been verified by the Bureau of Meteorology in the Pacific Ocean.
Models showed that this La Nina event will peak in the spring and revert to neutral circumstances early in 2023, according to the agency.
East coast set to be smashed by third-consecutive La Nina
Anna Atkins/Unsplash
During the spring and summer, La Nina occurrences enhance the likelihood of above-average rainfall in northern and eastern Australia.
It will be the first time in 20 years that Australia has seen three consecutive La Nina occurrences.
According to Weatherzone, La Nina was present over the previous two Southern Hemisphere summers.
The first La Nina happened between late September 2020 and March 2021, and the second occurred between November 2021 and June 2022, as per 9News.
It is relatively rare for La Nina to occur in two consecutive seasons. This occurred most recently in 2020-22 and 2010-12.
However, three successive La Nina incidents are unusual.
Before 2020, the United States In data dating back to 1950, CPC only recognized two triple-dip incidents (1973-1976 and 1998-2001).
The Bureau of Meteorology, on the other hand, classifies 1954 to 1957 as a triple-dip La Nina event, making it three triple La Nia occurrences between 1950 and 2019.
Australia has been struck by two rainy weather phenomena
According to the BoM, a negative Indian Ocean Dipole is still present, which indicated that temperatures in Australia are colder than usual.
Negative Indian Ocean Dipoles cause greater rainfall, which is terrible news for Australians looking for a hot and dry summer.
According to the agency, all evaluated climate models concur that negative IOD conditions are anticipated to persist through late April.
For much of Australia, a negative IOD event is often connected with above-average spring rainfall.
When a La Nina and a negative IOD combine, the risk of above-average rainfall across Australia increases, particularly in the eastern half of the continent.
Two La Ninas in a succession is somewhat frequent, but three is extremely rare, as per abc News.
There have only been two or three prior triple La Ninas since current records began in 1900, depending on the criteria used.
However, according to Zoe Gillett, a climate scientist at the University of New South Wales and the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, this round is already defying expectations.
When we experience an El Nino, it tends to trigger La Nina occurrences, according to her.
All prior triple La Nina tournaments had an El Nino the preceding year.
But this occurrence is unique in that it was not preceded by an El Nino the prior summer, she explained.
It's fascinating, and we'll be attempting to figure it out in the next few years.
The strength of the years within the triple La Ninas likewise varies.
"I looked up the figures, and the third La Nina was the weakest of the three episodes from 1954 to 1957, and from 1998 to 2001," according to Dr. Gillett.
However, the second La Nina was the weakest throughout the 1973-1976 tournament.
As a result, we don't have much information on what to expect from this likely third consecutive La Nina.
