Devastating Flood in Pakistan Reveals the Linkage to Climate Change

Experts say the deadly floods in Pakistan are a "wake-up call" to the globe about the dangers of climate change.

One climate expert told BBC News that the unprecedented downpour would harm any country, not just poorer ones.

Another 2,000 people were rescued from floodwaters on Friday, while politicians warn of food shortages after almost half of the country's crops were washed away.

In the country, there is a strong sense of unfairness. Pakistan generates less than 1% of the greenhouse gases that warm our planet, but its geographical location makes it very sensitive to climate change.

Pakistan flood and climate change

(Photo : Jonathan Ford/Unsplash)

"One-third of Pakistan is currently flooded, which has exceeded every threshold, every standard we've seen in the past," stated Climate Minister Sherry Rehman last week, as per BBC.

Pakistan is situated in an area of the world that is subjected to the effects of two major weather systems. One can induce high temperatures and drought, like as the March heatwave, while the other provides monsoon rains.

The Indus River, which swells and can flood during monsoon rains, is home to the bulk of Pakistan's people.

The research connecting climate change and more powerful monsoons is straightforward. Global warming raises air and sea temperatures, causing higher evaporation. Warmer air can hold more moisture, increasing the intensity of monsoon rainfall.

Climate change is expected to increase average rainfall during the Indian summer monsoon season, according to Anja Katzenberger of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.

However, Pakistan is vulnerable to the effects of climate change due to its massive glaciers.

The northern area is frequently referred to as the "third pole" since it has the most glacial ice outside of the polar regions.

Glacial ice is melting as the earth warms. Glaciers in Pakistan's Gilgit-Baltistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provinces are melting quickly, forming over 3,000 lakes, according to the UN Development Programme.

Around 33 of them are at risk of exploding, releasing millions of cubic meters of water and debris and putting 7 million people in danger.

The Pakistani government and the United Nations are striving to mitigate the hazards of these unexpected outburst floods by putting up early warning systems and protective structures.

Poorer countries with weaker flood defenses or lower-quality housing have historically been less able to deal with extreme rainfall.

However, climate impact specialist Fahad Saeed warned BBC News that even a wealthy country will be swamped by this summer's disastrous flooding.

Dr. Saeed says from Islamabad, Pakistan, that the volume of the floods is so large and the rain so intense that even the most powerful defenses would struggle.

He cites flooding in Germany and Belgium in 2021, which killed scores of people.

From June through August, Pakistan got over 190% more rain than its 30-year normal, totaling 390.7mm.

He claims that Pakistan's meteorological office performed a "decent" job of alerting residents about flooding ahead of time. And, while the country has some flood defenses, he believes they should be enhanced.

How Is Climate Change Affecting Floods?

Precipitation, snowmelt, terrain, and soil moisture are all important factors in flood formation. Some aspects may be more important than others depending on the type of flood, as per The New York Times.

A river flood, also known as a fluvial flood, happens when a river, stream, or lake overflows with water, usually as a result of heavy rain or swiftly melting snow.

A coastal flood happens when land areas along the coast are inundated by water, usually as a result of a violent storm colliding with high tides.

Flooding may also occur in regions where there are no adjacent bodies of water. Flash floods, in particular, can form anywhere there is heavy rainfall in a short period.

Experts will sometimes use the more straightforward term "a 100-year flood" to indicate a flood that has a 1% probability of occurring in any given year, which is regarded as an extraordinary and rare event.

However, the word is only a statement of chance, not a guarantee. Within a few years, a location might have two 100-year floods.

Climate change has increased the frequency of heavy precipitation events, but there has been no comparable rise in flood incidents.

Climate warming is likely boosting the frequency and intensity of major flood occurrences while lowering the number of mild floods, according to a 2021 study published in Nature.

Soils dry out faster when the temperature heats due to increasing rates of evaporation. The beginning conditions of soil moisture are critical for those mild and more typical floods, because drier soils may be able to absorb the majority of the rainfall.

With greater flood occurrences, early soil moisture is less important "because there's so much water that the soil wouldn't be able to absorb all of it anyhow," according to Manuela Brunner, a hydrologist at the University of Freiburg in Germany and the study's primary author.

Any additional water injected after the soil is fully saturated will run off and contribute to flooding formation, according to Dr. Brunner.