Experimental Product Predicts Lightning One Hour Before it Strikes

An experimental product being tested by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) can help predict lightning strikes up to an hour in advance.

When thunder occurs, go inside for safety. It's a low-tech tip for when lightning might be nearby that children and even adults have been taught for decades. However, meteorologists are now receiving a forewarning when these unexpected dangers may be approaching thanks to improvements in forecast products.

LightnigCast

NOAA says several that to determine who has the best chance of seeing lightning up to an hour before a strike, forecast offices across the nation use the experimental LightningCast product.

The GOES-16 and GOES-17 satellites, which continuously scan the skies over North America, provided the data.

A sophisticated algorithm, according to forecasters, can spot patterns in imagery that frequently appear before lightning activity in emerging thunderstorms. The results are presented on clear maps with confidence level-based color coding.

One of the National Weather Service offices that have tested the new product is the one in Birmingham, Alabama, and they think it could aid forecasters in predicting when summer thunderstorms will develop. A meteorologist at the NWS office said that they were able to determine whether it would be one of the 2 PM days or more of a 4 PM event thanks to this information.

When there is a sizable outdoor event, forecasters have found that the product is useful because event planners are constantly checking the weather forecast and consulting experts to learn about potential effects, if any.

LightningCast in Action

In July, when thousands of athletes went to central Alabama for the World Games, the new product's usefulness paid off.

Thanks in part to the LightningCast product, the NWS warned event coordinators about a growing lighting threat.

The games were temporarily halted until the threat had passed through the area and weather forecasters had given the all-clear.

The National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS) stated that forecasters gave LightningCast very positive reviews, stating that it frequently provides useful lead time before the initiation of lightning.

Meteorologists claim that, aside from significant events for which organizers are in touch with NWS offices, the public has not yet likely experienced any effects or alerts from the development of lightning detection.

It is hoped that as the product gains popularity and acceptance, forecasts will not only get better but alternative approaches will also be created to keep everyone informed and safe.

Around 20 people are killed by lightning each year in the United States, where there are an estimated 40 million strikes.

14 people have died so far in 2022 across the nation, including a mother in Central Florida who was waiting in front of a school for her child and three people hiding underneath a tree near the White House, New York Post reports.

Lightning

National Geographic reminds everyone that Contrary to popular belief, lightning can-and frequently does-hit the same spot twice.

The imbalance between storm clouds and the ground during a storm is increased by colliding rain, ice, and snow particles, which also frequently negatively charge the lower storm clouds. Spires, trees, as well as the Earth itself become positively charged when they come into contact with the ground, causing an imbalance that nature attempts to correct by allowing current to flow between the two charges.

Lightning is very hot; a flash can raise the surrounding air's temperature to levels five times higher than the surface of the sun. The pealing thunder that is audible shortly after witnessing a lightning flash is produced by the rapid expansion and vibration of the surrounding air brought on by this heat.