Even though the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season is off to a slower start than in recent years, several factors are converging for a sharp surge in tropical activity in mid-August, which might finally deliver Texas rain.
Tropical moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will be driven over and through the Latin American and Caribbean Economic System (SELA) today through much of the week by high pressure to the east and a trough of low pressure over Texas.
Due to the cloud cover and the high likelihood of rain predicted for the next days, temperatures today and for the majority of the rest of the week will be normal or below average.
Through Friday, there will be uncomfortable levels of humidity due to dew points in the mid to upper 70s.
Hurricane outbreak across Texas
NASA/Unsplash
The Atlantic basin normally has less hurricane and tropical storm activity in June and July.
According to Colorado State University meteorologist Phil Klotzbach, who prepares the Atlantic hurricane predictions between August and October, typically the prime months for development of 85% of significant storms form after August 20, as per KXAN.
Early in August 2020, the Atlantic hurricane season has already produced two hurricanes and seven tropical storms.
There have already been recorded four tropical storms and one hurricane by early August 2021.
Only three tropical storms with very little effects have formed during this Atlantic hurricane season.
Due to a number of reasons, including warmer ocean temperatures, less Saharan dust in the sky, and more disturbances marching across the ocean from Africa that function as "seedlings" for tropical storms, the Atlantic hurricane season begins to intensify around August.
Experts are monitoring a predicted rise in disturbances that will be sweeping off the African coast in the middle of August.
As they move westward over the Atlantic, these tropical waves may serve as the embryos of developing tropical storms.
In the heart of Africa, where these seedlings are produced, wetter-than-average weather is predicted, as Joe Bastardi of Weatherbell.com explained, "the wave train is about to start running."
Chances of flooding in poor drainage areas and no heat advisory
Due to the potential for ponding of water in low-lying and poorly draining regions caused by significant rainfall rates of two to four inches per hour, SELA is now at moderate risk of flash flooding, as per WDSU.
All of SELA is at a slight danger of flash flooding on Wednesday, and a small portion of the South Shore region near Baton Rouge is also at a little risk.
The locations that experience the heaviest rainfall rates are particularly at low risk for isolated flash floods. The chance of flooding is greatest in the late afternoon and evening.
For the next few days, the Atlantic Basin is forecast to remain calm.
There is no SELA heat advisory. Storms, rain, and a mostly overcast sky will help prevent our temperatures from reaching well beyond the typical 92 degrees for this time of year.
However, there are heat advisories in place for the states in the middle and upper Mississippi Valley. Heat indices this afternoon will range from 105 to 109 degrees if you're traveling north.
Keep yourself hydrated, avoid the sun as much as you can, take frequent breaks, and check in with family and friends.
Tuesday: The day will likely be largely overcast, warm, and humid with a slight chance of flash floods, a 70% chance of rain and storms, and afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s and low 90s.
Wednesday: There is a small or marginal chance of flash flooding in SELA. Expect a day that is mainly overcast, warm, humid, and gusty, with afternoon temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s and a 70% to 80% chance of showers and storms. Some experts claim that heavy storms might cause localized flash floods.
With a 60% to 70% chance of rain and storms and afternoon temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s, Thursday will be mainly overcast, warm, humid, and windy.
With a little wind, a 50% chance of showers and storms, and afternoon temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s, Friday will be hot, humid, and partly to mostly overcast.
Saturday will be hot, humid, partly to mostly overcast, with a little wind, a 40% chance of storms and showers, with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.
Sunday will be partly overcast, hot, and humid with a little wind. There will be a 30 to 40% chance of storms and showers, and the afternoon highs will be in the upper 80s to mid-90s.
