Will Catastrophic Climate Change Lead to Human Extinction? -New Analysis Released

The authors say that although it is understudied, the consequences of catastrophic climate change, being the possibility of human extinction, could still be on the cards if no action is taken.

They contend that the world must begin preparing for what they refer to as the "climate endgame" and demand that UN scientists look into the possibility of catastrophic change.

New Analysis

This new analysis shows that popular science books, not mainstream scientific research, have made the most direct attempts to understand or resolve how climate change might result in a global catastrophe.

Since the start of global industrialization in the 1850s, temperatures have been warming by about 1.5 or 2C. In recent years, climate scientists have focused more on the effects of this warming.

These studies demonstrate that maintaining temperatures at or near the current levels this century will have a significant negative impact on world economies, but they do not predict the extinction of humanity.

For good reasons, researchers have concentrated on these cooler temperature scenarios.

Nearly all countries on Earth signed the Paris Climate Agreement, which aims to keep the increase in global temperatures this century "well below" 2C and make attempts to keep it under 1.5C.

2070 Models

The researchers discovered that, in comparison to their likelihood, estimates of the effects of a 3C temperature rise are under-represented.

The report uses climate models to show that, under this kind of scenario, by 2070, approximately 2 billion people living in a few of the world's most politically unstable regions would have to deal with yearly average temperatures of 29C.

Chi Xu of Nanjing University, a co-author of the study, said that Currently, the Sahara and Gulf Coast are home to about 30 million people who are affected by average annual temperatures of 29C.

By 2070, these temperatures, as well as the social and political ramifications, will have a direct impact on two nuclear powers and seven maximum containment laboratories that house the most dangerous pathogens, he continued. There is a real chance that the consequences will be disastrous.

According to the report, the issue is not just high temperatures; it also includes their cumulative and knock-on effects, which include conflicts, disease outbreaks, and food or financial crises.

The identification of potential tipping points, where rising temperatures cause a different natural occurrence that raises temperatures even higher, should also receive more attention. Examples include forests that begin releasing carbon instead of absorbing it or methane emissions brought on by permafrost melting.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

The authors are requesting that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change conduct a special report on disastrous climate change to adequately assess all of these risks.

Even though it might make people nervous, the researchers argued that carefully considering the outcomes of the worst scenarios was essential.

They claimed that by conducting this research, scientists would be able to consider emergency measures like climate engineering, which might entail injecting coolants or some cooling agents into the atmosphere. Researchers could conduct a risk analysis comparing the adverse effects of climate change to these drastic interventions. Informing the public by concentrating on the worst-case scenarios may also reduce the likelihood of the outcomes.

Several younger climate activists will agree that more extreme scenarios should be seriously studied because they claim they are frequently ignored out of concern for scaring people into inaction.

Research into all facets of climate change, such as the terrifying possibility of catastrophic events, is essential, according to 25-year-old climate activist Laura Young. This is since without knowing the whole truth and all of the possible effects, people won't be able to make the necessary decisions and won't be under enough pressure to drive climate action.

Climate change has been concealed, misrepresented, and avoided for years, she continued, and this must end immediately. Particularly for all of the younger generations who will have to deal with the effects of decades of pressing the Earth to its breaking point, BBC reports.