New Climate Model for the Past 2,000 Years Reveals Long-Term Impact About Carbon Cycling and Climate Change

Climate change has been a subject of debates for several decades, especially the threat of changing weather patterns and intensifying extreme weather phenomena like drought, storms, heat wave, and among others.

Recent studies have showed us a glimpse of the ongoing climate crisis' environmental repercussions by the end of the 21^st century. However, a new research led by the University of London shows that a climate model designed to study the past can also determine future climate change.

Climate Change Research

(Photo : Photo by Sascha Thiele )

The new study was published in the journal Nature Geoscience on July 14, climate scientists determined that geologic intervals consisting of sustained warmth like the so-called mid-Pliocene Warm Period hold clues regarding carbon cycling, which is crucial in predicting the future of climate change.

The conclusion was made after the scientific team found that the sustained mid-Pliocene warmth led to deep water formation in the North Pacific Ocean. With this, the study believes this climatic indicator would also serve as a tool toward predicting not only the general effects of climate change but also the long-term environmental repercussions of human-caused carbon.

Also Read: Ocean Predators Become Hungrier Due to Climate Change and Global Warming

Global Carbon Cycle Impact

The new study used a climate model and geologic data to show how previous geologic periods like the mid-Pliocene warm period 3 million years ago is often used as a reference for future climate change.

This is due to the fact that global temperatures before were 2.3 degrees Celsius warmer than contemporary times. Yet, the amount of carbon dioxide remains the same.

The research model allowed the team to determine deep water formation in the North Pacific during the said period. The recent research is considered unique since there are no such formation even today.

The team suggests the warm period could have affected the ocean's carbon-storage ability and carbon cycling process in the ocean.

Dr. Heather Ford, from Queen Mary's School of Geography and the study's co-author, said conducting global climate models for thousands of years is expensive but it is crucial when it comes to understanding the impacts of carbon cyclin and climate change in the future, as cited by Phys.org.

Deep Ocean and Sea Surface

Dr. Ford reportedly argued that most studies in the past focused on conditions on the sea surface level and emphasized it is also critical to search for changes in the deep ocean, since this will also impact sea surface conditions.

By focusing on deep oceans, climate scientists could eventually predict not only short-term climate scenarios but also those that could occur in the next decades or even centuries.

Human-Caused Climate Change

According to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), scientific studies have shown that human-induced climate change will make extreme weather events like large storms and heat waves become more frequent or more intense.

While weather and climate are related, they are different in terms of scope and coverage. Weather is measurable in a daily, weekly, or monthly scale, particularly in a specific area or region. Yet, the case is quite different when it comes to discussing about climate, which covers a regional or global scale.

Similar to the new study, the EPA said that determining long-term changes in the climate is fundamental since it can directly or indirectly affect various aspects of society in a myriad of disruptive ways.