Heatwaves, Crop Production Challenges Lead to "Heatflation"

Costs are already significantly increasing due to inflation, but as the world experiences heat waves that may affect crop production, food prices could increase even more. An environmental news outlet, Grist, stated on Friday that "heatflation" could result in higher food prices globally as heat waves hit Europe and Asia this week.

Heatflation Explained

In an interview with Grist last month, Bob Keefe, the author of the book Climatenomics, noted that it is obvious to everyone how grocery prices have been rising. He continued by saying that one factor contributing to price increases is the loss of crops due to storms, flooding, or drought.

As crop production is threatened by the heat, pork prices are rising in China, CNN reported on Wednesday. The second-largest producer of wheat in the world, India, has been experiencing heat waves lately, according to the food-focused think tank Food Tank, which made the observation this month.

In an email to Newsweek, Monika Tothova, an economist with the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), explained that depending on the crop and the region, the effect of the current heat waves on crop production has stemmed into different complexities.

Tothova explains that heatwaves, for instance, would lower the humidity of the crops with only a minor impact on yields because the grain itself had already formed in areas where winter wheat harvest was already underway. Increased temperatures would hasten the maturation of the crops, as is occurring in several locations throughout Europe. A prime example of shifting harvests is the heatwave that is currently forecast for the UK.

She continued, though, that given the current tightness of the markets and the generally high prices as a result of several factors, any further shocks-including those related to the weather-will introduce uncertainty to the markets and put additional upward pressure on commodity prices.

Regarding food prices and inflation, she went on to say that while high food commodity prices are a significant contributor to inflation, it's important to keep in mind that there are also other factors at play. One of those factors is food inflation. These include constraints in the supply chain, energy costs, and numerous others.

Casualties of Increasing Temperatures

Grist claims that last year's wheat production was hampered by the high temperatures in the central United States, which also caused grain prices to soar to their highest per-bushel levels since 2008, factoring in the low supply, high demand, and the additional efforts invested into the production.

According to a CNN report from last August, the FAO noted that in part because of shortages brought on by extreme weather, food prices rose 31 percent over the previous year.

A heat wave in Kansas last month caused the death of thousands of cattle. At the time, Newsweek was informed by a representative of the Kansas Department of Health and Environment that there had been about 2,000 cattle fatalities in feed lots in the southwest region of the state.