Incoming Tropical Rainstorm May Bring Relief to Drought Stricken Southest

AccuWeather experts predict that drought-quenching showers, flooding downpours, and gusty thunderstorms will continue to target the southern United States until the later half of this week. The rainy pattern is still being pushed mostly by a stalled cold front, but a disorganized tropical rainfall along the northern Gulf of Mexico's coastlines may bring extra troubles.

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Passing Storm

A front that passed across the Southeastern states last week will persist in the region through at least Friday, from near the upper Texas coast to seas east of North Carolina. This front has been and will continue to be the primary generator of showers and thunderstorms.

Forecasters are keeping an eye on a vast swath of unsettled weather that stretches from northern Gulf of Mexico seas to neighboring coastline from the upper Texas coast to the Florida Panhandle.

AccuWeather has classified this system as a tropical rainstorm due to the risk of devastating and life-threatening flooding that might occur due to several inches to a foot of rain falling along parts of the northern Gulf Coast until the end of this week. There is also a chance that the system can slowly brew and mature into a tropical depression before drifting ashore, resulting in rainfall of 15 inches.

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Possible Flooding

A rainfall of that scale can cause significant flooding in a big urban region like New Orleans. The city is located in a basin several feet below sea level and relies on one of the world's largest pumping facilities to keep stormwater from accumulating on local streets. According to the Sewerage and Water Board of New Orleans, the pumps can handle 1 inch of rain in the first hour and 0.50 inches of rain after that. Rainfall exceeding these limits, such as more than three inches in five hours, might cause floods.

That potential has already been established elsewhere in the Southeast by the pattern.

The aforementioned cold front has a history of dropping 3-5 inches of rain in a few hours in select spots, including Augusta, Georgia, downtown Houston, and Fort Bragg, North Carolina. Over the last week, all three areas saw tremendous downpours.

On Thursday evening, city streets in downtown Houston were swamped for a brief while. Fort Bragg, located more than 100 miles east of Charlotte, had over 7 inches of rain from July 7 to July 10, while Augusta, located immediately on the South Carolina border, received 7.87 inches from July 7 to July 10.

Storm Trajectory

According to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson, a batch of dry air from the mainland United States flowed southward across part of the zone being studied for tropical development from Monday to Tuesday.

"This dry push is linked with weak northerly wind shear, which has sent many of Tuesday's thunderstorms offshore," Anderson explained. "However, that dry push and wind shear might subside throughout the middle and end of the week, leaving the system with the potential to brew into a tropical depression slowly."

Wind shear is connected with strong winds that blow from the same direction but change direction as they pass through various levels of the atmosphere. In most cases, significant wind shear can limit or prohibit the tropical activity.

The water temperatures in the northern Gulf are more than warm enough to sustain tropical growth. This temperature is roughly 78 degrees Fahrenheit. However, the seas in the area are close to 90 degrees.

AccuWeather meteorologists say the tropical downpour over the northern Gulf Coast has a low risk of tropical development.

Even if the rainfall does not develop into a tropical depression or storm, thunderstorms will continue to rage over northern Gulf waters, bringing rounds of strong surf, rip currents, and waves.

Potential Benefits

Forecasters suggest that as long as destructive flash floods do not occur, rainfall in many places might be beneficial, particularly for agricultural interests, given the region's chronic drought. According to last week's the United States Drought Monitor report, soil conditions ranged from reasonably wet to severe drought from the Carolinas to Louisiana.

Winds, waves, and dangerous conditions across the northern Gulf would worsen if the tropical rainfall developed and evolved into a tropical storm. Severe thunderstorms capable of generating waterspouts and tornadoes would also increase.

Large pockets of dry air and wind shear exist elsewhere in the Atlantic basin, a critical barrier to tropical storm formation. However, there are a handful of areas to keep an eye on over the next few days.