Hurricane Bonnie continues to cruise west over the Eastern Pacific Hurricane Basin; while it is projected to weaken and disintegrate over time, remnant rains from the tropical storm might affect Hawaii next week.
Bonnie was positioned around 560 miles southwest of the southern point of Baja California, according to the most recent National Hurricane Center advisory.
The storm had maximum sustained winds of 90 miles per hour and was traveling west at 17 miles per hour. The storm's lowest central pressure was 980 mb (28.94′′).
Hurricane bonnie in Hawaii
Nikolas Noonan/Unsplash
Bonnie is expected to move westward at a somewhat quicker forward pace during the next four days, according to the National Hurricane Center, as per Weatherboy.
While it is strengthening, it is also expected to drop to below hurricane status on Friday before becoming a post-tropical storm on Saturday.
Bonnie will not be able to redevelop once it hits the Central Pacific hurricane basin, where cooler waters prevail.
However, its leftover moisture is expected to continue moving west, impacting the Hawaiian Islands from July 12 to 15.
Because of the remaining moisture, the windward regions of the islands may experience increased shower and storm activity; the slopes of the higher elevations of the islands, particularly on the Big Island of Hawaii, may see extremely heavy rainfall.
While a quick burst of rain might cause flash flooding and mud/rock slides in Hawaii, it could also deliver much-needed precipitation to a state that has been suffering from a severe drought for a long time.
This morning's satellite image shows a thinning ring of clouds heading eastward from Maui. Across the state, local radar imaging indicates solitary to scattered showers, as per Big Island Now.
Another light easterly wave will arrive on the Big Island and Maui this evening, boosting rain activity across windward areas of both islands into Saturday morning.
The subtropical jet stream is still strong northwest of Kauai, with high-altitude cirrus clouds formed of ice crystals accentuating the hues of the Hawaiian dawn and sunset.
The high-pressure system located far north of Kauai will gradually move eastward through Wednesday.
Over the state, trade winds will continue moderate to locally brisk, with just minor day-to-day variations in wind speed.
Most locations will have a return to a more usual passing rain regime through Tuesday.
The only exception will be over the windward Big Island and eastern Maui on Friday night and Saturday, when a minor wave in the easterly wind flow may increase shower activity for the eastern islands, particularly throughout the evening and early morning hours.
On Sunday, a temporary drying trend is a forecast owing to increased stability from greater deflation, which will result in lower trade wind inversion heights and somewhat stronger wind speeds as the temperature inversion reduces the boundary layer.
As heavier tropical moisture (traces of Tropical Cyclone Bonnie) drifts across the area, the weather pattern becomes wetter.
This unstable moisture is expected to flow into the eastern islands by Wednesday afternoon and extend westward towards Oahu and Kauai by Wednesday night, according to global models.
If the deeper moisture tracks as predicted by long-term model solutions, we might receive adequate rainfall throughout all islands.
The long-term forecast guidance even suggests that another wave of deeper tropical moisture will move into the region the following weekend, around July 16th.
Keep an eye out for changes in the long-term weather prediction as these systems approach the islands.
